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Happy Valley · 2020-04-29

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-04-29 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. DELIGHTFUL LAOS, ridden by K C Leung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with GREEN REIGN second and FLASH FAMOUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite FLASH FAMOUS finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.40.10
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 DELIGHTFUL LAOS Closed strongly TT1 1.40.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · A S Cruz 5 60.0 1-1/4
2 7 GREEN REIGN B C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 4.4 1-1/4
3 6 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · F C Lor 2 2.9 1-1/4
4 2 JOLLY HONOUR B/TT Z Purton · Y S Tsui 6 8.2 1-1/4
5 5 TOP SCORE Led early B/TT M F Poon · K W Lui 12 25.0 1-1/2
6 8 WIND GLIDER B/TT N Callan · P O'Sullivan 1 11.0 1-1/2
7 10 DYNAMIC EAGLE B/H/XB/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum 4 15.0 1-1/2
8 3 SMART PATCH Closed strongly B C Schofield · K L Man 10 7.8 2
9 4 XIANG BAI QI B K Teetan · D E Ferraris 3 6.9 3
10 11 REYNOLDS SR/XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte 7 128.0 3-1/4
11 12 HERCULES Closed strongly XB T H So · C H Yip 11 78.0 5-1/2
12 1 GRACEANDMERCY H-/XB/TT1 V Borges · A T Millard 8 42.0 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DELIGHTFUL LAOS2. GREEN REIGN+1.25L3. FLASH FAMOUS+1.25L4. JOLLY HONOUR+1.25L5. TOP SCORE+1.5L6. WIND GLIDER+1.5L7. DYNAMIC EAGLE+1.5L8. SMART PATCH+2L9. XIANG BAI QI+3L10. REYNOLDS+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick FLASH FAMOUS (31.8%) finished 3rd — the winner DELIGHTFUL LAOS was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 FLASH FAMOUS 31.8% 3.14 3
2 10 DYNAMIC EAGLE 13.6% 7.35 7
3 2 JOLLY HONOUR 13.0% 7.71 4
4 7 GREEN REIGN 10.8% 9.28 2
5 4 XIANG BAI QI 9.4% 10.63 9
6 3 SMART PATCH 5.4% 18.68 8
7 8 WIND GLIDER 4.9% 20.49 6
8 5 TOP SCORE 4.5% 22.30 5
9 12 HERCULES 2.0% 49.67 11
10 11 REYNOLDS 1.9% 53.86 10
11 9 DELIGHTFUL LAOS 1.7% 60.39 1
12 1 GRACEANDMERCY 1.2% 85.70 12
FLASH FAMOUSDYNAMIC EAGLEJOLLY HONOURGREEN REIGNXIANG BAI QISMART PATCHWIND GLIDERTOP SCOREHERCULESREYNOLDSDELIGHTFUL LAOS — wonGRACEANDMERCY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 603.5

PLACE

6 13

7 14

9 144

QUINELLA

7,9 1,197

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 32

6,9 228

7,9 362.5

TIERCE

9,7,6 9,139

TRIO

6,7,9 976

FIRST 4

2,6,7,9 1,545

QUARTET

9,7,6,2 63,986

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 32

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

5/7 35.5

5/9 2,326.5