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Happy Valley · 2020-04-29

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.10
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 DELIGHTFUL LAOS Closed strongly TT1 1.40.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · A S Cruz 5 60.0 1-1/4
2 0 GREEN REIGN B C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 4.4 1-1/4
3 0 FLASH FAMOUS Closed strongly B/TT J Moreira · F C Lor 2 2.9 1-1/4
4 0 JOLLY HONOUR B/TT Z Purton · Y S Tsui 6 8.2 1-1/4
5 0 TOP SCORE Led early B/TT M F Poon · K W Lui 12 25.0 1-1/2
6 0 WIND GLIDER B/TT N Callan · P O'Sullivan 1 11.0 1-1/2
7 0 DYNAMIC EAGLE B/H/XB/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum 4 15.0 1-1/2
8 0 SMART PATCH Closed strongly B C Schofield · K L Man 10 7.8 2
9 0 XIANG BAI QI B K Teetan · D E Ferraris 3 6.9 3
10 0 REYNOLDS SR/XB M Chadwick · D J Whyte 7 128.0 3-1/4
11 0 HERCULES Closed strongly XB T H So · C H Yip 11 78.0 5-1/2
12 0 GRACEANDMERCY H-/XB/TT1 V Borges · A T Millard 8 42.0 7-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-04-29 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. DELIGHTFUL LAOS, ridden by K C Leung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with GREEN REIGN second and FLASH FAMOUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite FLASH FAMOUS finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DELIGHTFUL LAOS—2. GREEN REIGN+1.25L3. FLASH FAMOUS+1.25L4. JOLLY HONOUR+1.25L5. TOP SCORE+1.5L6. WIND GLIDER+1.5L7. DYNAMIC EAGLE+1.5L8. SMART PATCH+2L9. XIANG BAI QI+3L10. REYNOLDS+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick FLASH FAMOUS (31.8%) finished 3rd — the winner DELIGHTFUL LAOS was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 FLASH FAMOUS 31.8% 3.14 3
2 0 DYNAMIC EAGLE 13.6% 7.35 7
3 0 JOLLY HONOUR 13.0% 7.71 4
4 0 GREEN REIGN 10.8% 9.28 2
5 0 XIANG BAI QI 9.4% 10.63 9
6 0 SMART PATCH 5.4% 18.68 8
7 0 WIND GLIDER 4.9% 20.49 6
8 0 TOP SCORE 4.5% 22.30 5
9 0 HERCULES 2.0% 49.67 11
10 0 REYNOLDS 1.9% 53.86 10
11 0 DELIGHTFUL LAOS 1.7% 60.39 1
12 0 GRACEANDMERCY 1.2% 85.70 12
FLASH FAMOUSDYNAMIC EAGLEJOLLY HONOURGREEN REIGNXIANG BAI QISMART PATCHWIND GLIDERTOP SCOREHERCULESREYNOLDSDELIGHTFUL LAOS — wonGRACEANDMERCY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 603.5

PLACE

6 13

7 14

9 144

QUINELLA

7,9 1,197

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 32

6,9 228

7,9 362.5

TIERCE

9,7,6 9,139

TRIO

6,7,9 976

FIRST 4

2,6,7,9 1,545

QUARTET

9,7,6,2 63,986

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 32

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

5/7 35.5

5/9 2,326.5