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Happy Valley · 2020-04-29

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course A 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-04-29 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. VICTORIOUS SEEKER, ridden by J Moreira and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 2, with CURLING LUXURY second and VIRTUS STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.49.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 VICTORIOUS SEEKER Closed strongly B 1.49.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · P O'Sullivan 2 2.6 2
2 4 CURLING LUXURY C Wong · Y S Tsui 1 7.5 2
3 12 VIRTUS STAR Closed strongly SR/CP1/TT1 Z Purton · F C Lor 6 4.8 3
4 3 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS Closed strongly B2 B Shinn · C W Chang 3 8.0 4-1/4
5 11 GOLDEN GENERAL CP C Y Ho · K H Ting 8 27.0 4-3/4
6 8 AEROFLASH Closed strongly CP-/B2 C Schofield · J Moore 9 13.0 5-1/4
7 7 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/XB K Teetan · A T Millard 5 10.0 5-1/2
8 10 WINNERS BROTHER B M L Yeung · K L Man 7 29.0 5-1/2
9 1 MERIDIAN TALENT P1 H W Lai · R Gibson 11 331.0 5-1/2
10 5 GOLDEN KID Closed strongly B M Chadwick · K W Lui 12 43.0 6
11 6 BRING IT ON Led early B1/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 10 10.0 8-1/4
12 9 DR LUCKY STAR B M F Poon · D J Hall 4 149.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VICTORIOUS SEEKER2. CURLING LUXURY+2L3. VIRTUS STAR+3L4. ENJOYABLE SUCCESS+4.25L5. GOLDEN GENERAL+4.75L6. AEROFLASH+5.25L7. FORTUNE PATROL+5.5L8. WINNERS BROTHER+5.5L9. MERIDIAN TALENT+5.5L10. GOLDEN KID+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick VICTORIOUS SEEKER (31.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 VICTORIOUS SEEKER 31.8% 3.15 1
2 12 VIRTUS STAR 27.3% 3.67 3
3 7 FORTUNE PATROL 8.8% 11.32 7
4 8 AEROFLASH 7.7% 12.96 6
5 10 WINNERS BROTHER 5.1% 19.78 8
6 6 BRING IT ON 4.9% 20.39 11
7 3 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS 4.8% 20.74 4
8 4 CURLING LUXURY 3.6% 27.42 2
9 5 GOLDEN KID 2.3% 43.77 10
10 11 GOLDEN GENERAL 2.1% 48.49 5
11 9 DR LUCKY STAR 1.0% 103.05 12
12 1 MERIDIAN TALENT 0.6% 154.00 9
VICTORIOUS SEEKER — wonVIRTUS STARFORTUNE PATROLAEROFLASHWINNERS BROTHERBRING IT ONENJOYABLE SUCCESSCURLING LUXURYGOLDEN KIDGOLDEN GENERALDR LUCKY STARMERIDIAN TALENT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 26.5

PLACE

2 12.5

4 21

12 17.5

QUINELLA

2,4 88

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 37

2,12 30

4,12 50

TIERCE

2,4,12 647

TRIO

2,4,12 152

FIRST 4

2,3,4,12 197

QUARTET

2,4,12,3 3,517

1ST DOUBLE

4/2 209

4/4 109.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 17

A2