Happy Valley · 2020-04-29
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-04-29 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SIMPLY FLUKE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by D J Whyte, won by 3/4, with MANAGEMENT SUPREME second and AMBITIOUS HEART third. Victory came as the 3.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SIMPLY FLUKE H/P/XB 1.09.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · D J Whyte | J Moreira | D J Whyte | 12 | 3.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | MANAGEMENT SUPREME C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 40.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | AMBITIOUS HEART B/TT A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 11 | 35.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | ATHENA XB-/TT T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 1 | 44.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 11 | LUCKY MISSILE M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | RESOLUTE B1 V Borges · A T Millard | V Borges | A T Millard | 9 | 22.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | SUPER ALLIANCES K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 7 | 5.8 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | COOLCELEB PC/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 4 | 11.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 12 | WHO'S HORSE B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 3 | 8.8 | 9-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | DOUBLE TAKE M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 8 | 109.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | FIRST RESPONDER CP/TT B Shinn · J Moore | B Shinn | J Moore | 6 | 7.3 | 11-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | COLONEL TT1 Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 10 | 5.6 | 26-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | COLONEL | 26.4% | 3.79 | 12 |
| 2 | 7 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 23.6% | 4.23 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | SUPER ALLIANCES | 15.2% | 6.58 | 7 |
| 4 | 11 | LUCKY MISSILE | 8.4% | 11.95 | 5 |
| 5 | 12 | WHO'S HORSE | 7.0% | 14.37 | 9 |
| 6 | 9 | COOLCELEB | 6.8% | 14.70 | 8 |
| 7 | 2 | FIRST RESPONDER | 3.7% | 27.27 | 11 |
| 8 | 10 | DOUBLE TAKE | 3.5% | 28.73 | 10 |
| 9 | 1 | AMBITIOUS HEART | 2.6% | 37.81 | 3 |
| 10 | 8 | RESOLUTE | 1.2% | 80.76 | 6 |
| 11 | 5 | MANAGEMENT SUPREME | 1.1% | 88.69 | 2 |
| 12 | 4 | ATHENA | 0.5% | 206.55 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 30.5
PLACE
1 90.5
5 88
7 14
QUINELLA
5,7 727.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 1,665
1,7 198.5
5,7 191.5
TIERCE
7,5,1 18,729
TRIO
1,5,7 4,322
FIRST 4
1,4,5,7 13,304
QUARTET
7,5,1,4 187,415
3 PICK 1
A1 20
A3 —
A2 —
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
2/5 276.5
2/7 106