跑馬地 · 2020-04-29
第 4場
2020-04-29跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、D J Whyte訓練的SIMPLY FLUKE勝出，贏出3/4。MANAGEMENT SUPREME獲得亞軍；AMBITIOUS HEART獲得季軍。頭馬以3.0倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SIMPLY FLUKE H/P/XB 1.09.98 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · D J Whyte | J Moreira | D J Whyte | 12 | 3.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | MANAGEMENT SUPREME C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 40.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | AMBITIOUS HEART B/TT A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 11 | 35.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | ATHENA XB-/TT T H So · C H Yip | T H So | C H Yip | 1 | 44.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 11 | LUCKY MISSILE M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | RESOLUTE B1 V Borges · A T Millard | V Borges | A T Millard | 9 | 22.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | SUPER ALLIANCES K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 7 | 5.8 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | COOLCELEB PC/TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 4 | 11.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 12 | WHO'S HORSE B/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 3 | 8.8 | 9-1/2 |
| 10 | 10 | DOUBLE TAKE M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 8 | 109.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | FIRST RESPONDER CP/TT B Shinn · J Moore | B Shinn | J Moore | 6 | 7.3 | 11-1/2 |
| 12 | 3 | COLONEL TT1 Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 10 | 5.6 | 26-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | COLONEL | 26.4% | 3.79 | 12 |
| 2 | 7 | SIMPLY FLUKE | 23.6% | 4.23 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | SUPER ALLIANCES | 15.2% | 6.58 | 7 |
| 4 | 11 | LUCKY MISSILE | 8.4% | 11.95 | 5 |
| 5 | 12 | WHO'S HORSE | 7.0% | 14.37 | 9 |
| 6 | 9 | COOLCELEB | 6.8% | 14.70 | 8 |
| 7 | 2 | FIRST RESPONDER | 3.7% | 27.27 | 11 |
| 8 | 10 | DOUBLE TAKE | 3.5% | 28.73 | 10 |
| 9 | 1 | AMBITIOUS HEART | 2.6% | 37.81 | 3 |
| 10 | 8 | RESOLUTE | 1.2% | 80.76 | 6 |
| 11 | 5 | MANAGEMENT SUPREME | 1.1% | 88.69 | 2 |
| 12 | 4 | ATHENA | 0.5% | 206.55 | 4 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 30.5
PLACE
1 90.5
5 88
7 14
QUINELLA
5,7 727.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 1,665
1,7 198.5
5,7 191.5
TIERCE
7,5,1 18,729
TRIO
1,5,7 4,322
FIRST 4
1,4,5,7 13,304
QUARTET
7,5,1,4 187,415
3 PICK 1
A1 20
A3 —
A2 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3RD DOUBLE
2/5 276.5
2/7 106