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Happy Valley · 2020-04-29

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2020-04-29 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SHINING GEM, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with NORDIC WARRIOR second and DIAMOND BRILLIANT third. The 2.7 favourite DIAMOND BRILLIANT finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.40
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SHINING GEM CP 1.09.40 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · P F Yiu 1 3.0 1-1/4
2 12 NORDIC WARRIOR B M Chadwick · R Gibson 11 43.0 1-1/4
3 9 DIAMOND BRILLIANT CP/TT Z Purton · T P Yung 2 2.7 1-1/4
4 10 BIG FORTUNE B/XB T H So · D J Whyte 3 21.0 1-3/4
5 5 VICTORIAM A Hamelin · K W Lui 12 24.0 2
6 11 HANDSOME REBEL B- H T Mo · Y S Tsui 4 10.0 2
7 4 BEAUTY AMIGO B K C Leung · J Moore 10 16.0 3-1/4
8 2 SUPER DOBBIN K Teetan · A T Millard 9 27.0 3-1/2
9 8 SEVENTH SEA SR H W Lai · D E Ferraris 7 140.0 3-1/2
10 3 YOUNG LEGEND H/TT C Wong · C S Shum 6 17.0 3-3/4
11 7 WIND N GRASS TT J Moreira · J Size 8 9.0 3-3/4
12 6 LE TERROIR CP M L Yeung · L Ho 5 36.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SHINING GEM2. NORDIC WARRIOR+1.25L3. DIAMOND BRILLIANT+1.25L4. BIG FORTUNE+1.75L5. VICTORIAM+2L6. HANDSOME REBEL+2L7. BEAUTY AMIGO+3.25L8. SUPER DOBBIN+3.5L9. SEVENTH SEA+3.5L10. YOUNG LEGEND+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick DIAMOND BRILLIANT (40.2%) finished 3rd — the winner SHINING GEM was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 DIAMOND BRILLIANT 40.2% 2.49 3
2 5 VICTORIAM 11.7% 8.52 5
3 4 BEAUTY AMIGO 10.8% 9.27 7
4 7 WIND N GRASS 10.4% 9.64 11
5 1 SHINING GEM 7.7% 12.92 1
6 3 YOUNG LEGEND 5.6% 17.76 10
7 11 HANDSOME REBEL 4.8% 20.73 6
8 2 SUPER DOBBIN 3.0% 33.61 8
9 8 SEVENTH SEA 1.7% 59.50 9
10 12 NORDIC WARRIOR 1.6% 62.66 2
11 6 LE TERROIR 1.3% 79.38 12
12 10 BIG FORTUNE 1.2% 82.61 4
DIAMOND BRILLIANTVICTORIAMBEAUTY AMIGOWIND N GRASSSHINING GEM — wonYOUNG LEGENDHANDSOME REBELSUPER DOBBINSEVENTH SEANORDIC WARRIORLE TERROIRBIG FORTUNE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 30

PLACE

1 14

9 11.5

12 81.5

QUINELLA

1,12 746

QUINELLA PLACE

1,9 23

1,12 183

9,12 160

TIERCE

1,12,9 4,021

TRIO

1,9,12 484

FIRST 4

1,9,10,12 1,379

QUARTET

1,12,9,10 34,652

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,9/1,9,12 53,273

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 14

A2

A3

6TH DOUBLE

9/1 1,987.5

9/12 2,241.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

5,8,11/6,7,9/Any Combination 37,656