Happy Valley · 2020-05-20
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-05-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HERE COMES TED, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D E Ferraris, won by N, with GOODLUCK GOODLUCK second and HAPPY GOOD GUYS third. The 3.7 favourite HAPPY GOOD GUYS finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | HERE COMES TED B-/CP1 1.10.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D E Ferraris | K Teetan | D E Ferraris | 8 | 11.0 | N |
| 2 | 1 | GOODLUCK GOODLUCK CP2 K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 5 | 8.9 | N |
| 3 | 2 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS V- J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 2 | 3.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 8 | FARM BUMPER C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 7 | 7.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | SWEETLY BABY H1/TT C Wong · C Fownes | C Wong | C Fownes | 6 | 71.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | SKY TREASURE H H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 12 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | MANAGEMENT SUPREME C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 8.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | STARLIGHT K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 3 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | EVEN KEEL TT- M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 11 | 183.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 12 | DIAMOND LEGEND V/TT H N Wong · A S Cruz | H N Wong | A S Cruz | 1 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | UNITED WE STAND B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 10 | 70.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | GINTOKI B Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 4 | 4.6 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 28.5% | 3.51 | 3 |
| 2 | 6 | GINTOKI | 13.9% | 7.19 | 12 |
| 3 | 8 | FARM BUMPER | 13.1% | 7.65 | 4 |
| 4 | 11 | HERE COMES TED | 10.9% | 9.18 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | STARLIGHT | 7.2% | 13.91 | 8 |
| 6 | 1 | GOODLUCK GOODLUCK | 5.9% | 16.82 | 2 |
| 7 | 4 | MANAGEMENT SUPREME | 5.9% | 17.02 | 7 |
| 8 | 7 | SKY TREASURE | 5.4% | 18.49 | 6 |
| 9 | 12 | DIAMOND LEGEND | 3.7% | 26.70 | 10 |
| 10 | 10 | UNITED WE STAND | 2.7% | 36.39 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | SWEETLY BABY | 1.9% | 53.37 | 5 |
| 12 | 3 | EVEN KEEL | 0.8% | 118.17 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 110
PLACE
1 23.5
2 15.5
11 46
QUINELLA
1,11 703
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 59
1,11 208.5
2,11 92.5
TIERCE
11,1,2 5,097
TRIO
1,2,11 676
FIRST 4
1,2,8,11 1,034
QUARTET
11,1,2,8 33,427
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 24