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Happy Valley · 2020-05-20

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-05-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FLYING BONUS, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C H Yip, won by 2-3/4, with INTERSTELLAR second and HARRIER JET third. The 2.4 favourite JADE PHOENIX finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.09.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 FLYING BONUS 1.09.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C H Yip 10 11.0 2-3/4
2 8 INTERSTELLAR B/H/TT N Callan · K W Lui 2 7.4 2-3/4
3 5 HARRIER JET B/TT- M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 6 11.0 2-3/4
4 2 SIMPLY FLUKE H/P/XB J Moreira · D J Whyte 11 4.2 3-1/2
5 9 THE SHOW B V Borges · C W Chang 5 30.0 4-1/4
6 12 MULTIMAX B H T Mo · L Ho 9 52.0 4-1/2
7 4 JADE PHOENIX B2 Z Purton · F C Lor 4 2.4 5
8 3 SPACE P-/XB-/H1/TT1 B Shinn · P F Yiu 3 17.0 5-1/4
9 11 PLAY TO WIN H/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 12 189.0 6-1/4
10 10 KUNG FU TEA XB C Y Ho · D J Hall 1 48.0 6-1/2
11 7 HIN YUEN BIS TT1 K Teetan · K H Ting 8 17.0 7-3/4
12 6 DESTINE JEWELLERY V C Schofield · J Size 7 15.0 7-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLYING BONUS2. INTERSTELLAR+2.75L3. HARRIER JET+2.75L4. SIMPLY FLUKE+3.5L5. THE SHOW+4.25L6. MULTIMAX+4.5L7. JADE PHOENIX+5L8. SPACE+5.25L9. PLAY TO WIN+6.25L10. KUNG FU TEA+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick JADE PHOENIX (24.0%) finished 7th — the winner FLYING BONUS was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 JADE PHOENIX 24.0% 4.17 7
2 2 SIMPLY FLUKE 20.5% 4.88 4
3 8 INTERSTELLAR 16.9% 5.90 2
4 6 DESTINE JEWELLERY 8.5% 11.74 12
5 7 HIN YUEN BIS 7.5% 13.31 11
6 1 FLYING BONUS 6.1% 16.40 1
7 5 HARRIER JET 5.1% 19.45 3
8 9 THE SHOW 3.2% 31.34 5
9 12 MULTIMAX 2.8% 35.31 6
10 10 KUNG FU TEA 2.2% 46.21 10
11 3 SPACE 1.8% 56.41 8
12 11 PLAY TO WIN 1.3% 75.60 9
JADE PHOENIXSIMPLY FLUKEINTERSTELLARDESTINE JEWELLERYHIN YUEN BISFLYING BONUS — wonHARRIER JETTHE SHOWMULTIMAXKUNG FU TEASPACEPLAY TO WIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 116.5

PLACE

1 31.5

5 36.5

8 22

QUINELLA

1,8 342.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 184.5

1,8 118.5

5,8 105

TIERCE

1,8,5 6,636

TRIO

1,5,8 1,139

FIRST 4

1,2,5,8 1,026

QUARTET

1,8,5,2 27,767

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 32

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

11/1 626

11/8 54