Happy Valley · 2020-05-20

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course C+3 9 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-05-20 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CLASSIC UNICORN, ridden by K C Leung and trained by W Y So, won by 4, with BE READY second and FLYING GENIUS third. The 3.7 favourite EXPLOSIVE WITNESS finished 5th.

Result

Official · 0.56.38

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	4	CLASSIC UNICORN TT 0.56.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · W Y So	K C Leung	W Y So	3	125 lb	6.0	4
2	3	BE READY B Z Purton · F C Lor	Z Purton	F C Lor	2	127 lb	4.7	4
3	5	FLYING GENIUS TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	8	123 lb	5.5	4-1/2
4	9	G UNIT C Schofield · J Moore	C Schofield	J Moore	1	117 lb	6.3	5-1/2
5	2	EXPLOSIVE WITNESS J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	5	128 lb	3.7	6
6	7	JOLLY GOOD HEART H1 C Y Ho · D J Whyte	C Y Ho	D J Whyte	4	122 lb	40.0	6-1/4
7	6	VERY SWEET ORANGE V H N Wong · Y S Tsui	H N Wong	Y S Tsui	7	120 lb	26.0	7
8	1	ALLIED AGILITY H/TT K H Chan · P F Yiu	K H Chan	P F Yiu	6	126 lb	6.4	7
9	8	KING'S EMINENCE TT H T Mo · L Ho	H T Mo	L Ho	9	117 lb	136.0	9

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick BE READY (26.8%) finished 2nd — the winner CLASSIC UNICORN was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	BE READY	26.8%	3.73	2	4.7
2	2	EXPLOSIVE WITNESS	17.6%	5.69	5	3.7
3	5	FLYING GENIUS	16.5%	6.08	3	5.5
4	1	ALLIED AGILITY	10.5%	9.54	8	6.4
5	4	CLASSIC UNICORN	9.6%	10.43	1	6.0
6	9	G UNIT	9.4%	10.66	4	6.3
7	6	VERY SWEET ORANGE	5.2%	19.24	7	26.0
8	7	JOLLY GOOD HEART	3.5%	28.35	6	40.0
9	8	KING'S EMINENCE	1.0%	100.49	9	136.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 60.5

PLACE

3 15.5

4 22

5 19.5

QUINELLA

3,4 166.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 54.5

3,5 42.5

4,5 70

TIERCE

4,3,5 1,362

TRIO

3,4,5 226

FIRST 4

3,4,5,9 321

QUARTET

4,3,5,9 8,262

3 PICK 1

A2 18

A1 —

A3 —

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

6/3 31

6/4 257

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