Sha Tin · 2020-05-27

Race 4

Class 2 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 8 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-27 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. KINGS SHIELD, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 2-1/2, with BUDDIES second and RAGING BLITZKRIEG third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.36.75

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	3	KINGS SHIELD Wire to wire CP 1.36.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor	Z Purton	F C Lor	6	126 lb	1.8	2-1/2
2	1	BUDDIES C L Chau · J Moore	C L Chau	J Moore	8	121 lb	5.1	2-1/2
3	5	RAGING BLITZKRIEG H C Schofield · J Size	C Schofield	J Size	5	125 lb	16.0	4
4	4	MONGOLIAN KING Closed strongly B K Teetan · Y S Tsui	K Teetan	Y S Tsui	4	125 lb	5.8	8-1/4
5	2	GLORIOUS ARTIST Closed strongly K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	7	128 lb	26.0	9-1/4
6	7	STAR PERFORMANCE TT H T Mo · A S Cruz	H T Mo	A S Cruz	2	118 lb	17.0	10
7	8	CORDYCEPS B C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	1	119 lb	7.3	13-1/4
8	9	NOBLE STEED A Hamelin · K W Lui	A Hamelin	K W Lui	3	118 lb	59.0	14-1/4
—	6	HARMONY HERO N Callan · R Gibson	N Callan	R Gibson	—	122 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick BUDDIES (32.2%) finished 2nd — the winner KINGS SHIELD was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	BUDDIES	32.2%	3.10	2	5.1
2	3	KINGS SHIELD	14.6%	6.83	1	1.8
3	4	MONGOLIAN KING	14.0%	7.12	4	5.8
4	9	NOBLE STEED	11.2%	8.95	8	59.0
5	5	RAGING BLITZKRIEG	9.1%	10.93	3	16.0
6	7	STAR PERFORMANCE	8.0%	12.45	6	17.0
7	8	CORDYCEPS	7.6%	13.09	7	7.3
8	2	GLORIOUS ARTIST	3.1%	32.27	5	26.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 18.5

PLACE

1 15

3 12.5

5 31.5

QUINELLA

1,3 48.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 21

1,5 69

3,5 44.5

TIERCE

3,1,5 380

TRIO

1,3,5 135

FIRST 4

1,3,4,5 64

QUARTET

3,1,5,4 937

3 PICK 1

A1 18.5

A3 —

A2 —

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

7/1 39.5

7/3 94

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