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Sha Tin · 2020-05-27

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.49.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 HIDDEN SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT 1.49.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · P O'Sullivan 1 5.1 3/4
2 0 CURLING LUXURY H T Mo · Y S Tsui 5 7.2 3/4
3 0 KEEP WINNING Closed strongly TT K C Leung · C W Chang 2 8.3 3-1/2
4 0 DR LUCKY STAR Closed strongly B/XB T H So · D J Hall 4 83.0 4
5 0 THE FULL BLOOM P1/TT K Teetan · C H Yip 10 10.0 4-1/4
6 0 VIRTUS STAR Closed strongly CP-/SR-/B1/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 7 5.3 4-3/4
7 0 ROCKAGE Led early B/XB/TT M L Yeung · K W Lui 8 22.0 5
8 0 SKY GEM Closed strongly B Shinn · C Fownes 9 14.0 5-3/4
9 0 BREAK RECORD Closed strongly CP/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 13 33.0 7
10 0 HAPPY ICHIBAN P2 C Schofield · D J Whyte 6 9.9 23-3/4
11 0 WICKER B M F Poon · R Gibson 14 22.0 27-1/4
12 0 HAY RUN A Hamelin · L Ho 11 6.5 33-1/4
13 0 CAMFORD MAGIC B1 H N Wong · W Y So 3 234.0 68-3/4
— 0 OLD HAVANA C Wong · D E Ferraris 12 60.0 —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-27 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. HIDDEN SPIRIT, ridden by N Callan and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 3/4, with CURLING LUXURY second and KEEP WINNING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 5.1 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HIDDEN SPIRIT—2. CURLING LUXURY+0.75L3. KEEP WINNING+3.5L4. DR LUCKY STAR+4L5. THE FULL BLOOM+4.25L6. VIRTUS STAR+4.75L7. ROCKAGE+5L8. SKY GEM+5.75L9. BREAK RECORD+7L10. HAPPY ICHIBAN+23.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick VIRTUS STAR (23.9%) finished 6th — the winner HIDDEN SPIRIT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 VIRTUS STAR 23.9% 4.19 6
2 0 HIDDEN SPIRIT 17.2% 5.80 1
3 0 SKY GEM 15.2% 6.58 8
4 0 HAPPY ICHIBAN 8.1% 12.35 10
5 0 HAY RUN 7.3% 13.71 12
6 0 CURLING LUXURY 6.1% 16.28 2
7 0 THE FULL BLOOM 5.2% 19.39 5
8 0 KEEP WINNING 4.5% 22.29 3
9 0 WICKER 4.5% 22.31 11
10 0 BREAK RECORD 3.7% 27.03 9
11 0 ROCKAGE 2.9% 35.04 7
12 0 DR LUCKY STAR 0.9% 115.59 4
13 0 CAMFORD MAGIC 0.6% 156.77 13
VIRTUS STARHIDDEN SPIRIT — wonSKY GEMHAPPY ICHIBANHAY RUNCURLING LUXURYTHE FULL BLOOMKEEP WINNINGWICKERBREAK RECORDROCKAGEDR LUCKY STARCAMFORD MAGIC

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 51.5

PLACE

2 21

6 20

9 30

QUINELLA

2,6 188.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 64.5

2,9 87

6,9 95.5

TIERCE

2,6,9 1,927

TRIO

2,6,9 275

FIRST 4

2,6,9,13 8,810

QUARTET

2,6,9,13 117,624

1ST DOUBLE

11/2 361

11/6 62.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 21.5

A1 —