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Sha Tin · 2020-05-27

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 13 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-27 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. HIDDEN SPIRIT, ridden by N Callan and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by 3/4, with CURLING LUXURY second and KEEP WINNING third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 5.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.49.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 HIDDEN SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT 1.49.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · P O'Sullivan 1 5.1 3/4
2 6 CURLING LUXURY H T Mo · Y S Tsui 5 7.2 3/4
3 9 KEEP WINNING Closed strongly TT K C Leung · C W Chang 2 8.3 3-1/2
4 13 DR LUCKY STAR Closed strongly B/XB T H So · D J Hall 4 83.0 4
5 10 THE FULL BLOOM P1/TT K Teetan · C H Yip 10 10.0 4-1/4
6 11 VIRTUS STAR Closed strongly CP-/SR-/B1/TT Z Purton · F C Lor 7 5.3 4-3/4
7 14 ROCKAGE Led early B/XB/TT M L Yeung · K W Lui 8 22.0 5
8 4 SKY GEM Closed strongly B Shinn · C Fownes 9 14.0 5-3/4
9 3 BREAK RECORD Closed strongly CP/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 13 33.0 7
10 1 HAPPY ICHIBAN P2 C Schofield · D J Whyte 6 9.9 23-3/4
11 12 WICKER B M F Poon · R Gibson 14 22.0 27-1/4
12 7 HAY RUN A Hamelin · L Ho 11 6.5 33-1/4
13 5 CAMFORD MAGIC B1 H N Wong · W Y So 3 234.0 68-3/4
8 OLD HAVANA C Wong · D E Ferraris 12 60.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HIDDEN SPIRIT2. CURLING LUXURY+0.75L3. KEEP WINNING+3.5L4. DR LUCKY STAR+4L5. THE FULL BLOOM+4.25L6. VIRTUS STAR+4.75L7. ROCKAGE+5L8. SKY GEM+5.75L9. BREAK RECORD+7L10. HAPPY ICHIBAN+23.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick VIRTUS STAR (23.9%) finished 6th — the winner HIDDEN SPIRIT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 VIRTUS STAR 23.9% 4.19 6
2 2 HIDDEN SPIRIT 17.2% 5.80 1
3 4 SKY GEM 15.2% 6.58 8
4 1 HAPPY ICHIBAN 8.1% 12.35 10
5 7 HAY RUN 7.3% 13.71 12
6 6 CURLING LUXURY 6.1% 16.28 2
7 10 THE FULL BLOOM 5.2% 19.39 5
8 9 KEEP WINNING 4.5% 22.29 3
9 12 WICKER 4.5% 22.31 11
10 3 BREAK RECORD 3.7% 27.03 9
11 14 ROCKAGE 2.9% 35.04 7
12 13 DR LUCKY STAR 0.9% 115.59 4
13 5 CAMFORD MAGIC 0.6% 156.77 13
VIRTUS STARHIDDEN SPIRIT — wonSKY GEMHAPPY ICHIBANHAY RUNCURLING LUXURYTHE FULL BLOOMKEEP WINNINGWICKERBREAK RECORDROCKAGEDR LUCKY STARCAMFORD MAGIC

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 51.5

PLACE

2 21

6 20

9 30

QUINELLA

2,6 188.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 64.5

2,9 87

6,9 95.5

TIERCE

2,6,9 1,927

TRIO

2,6,9 275

FIRST 4

2,6,9,13 8,810

QUARTET

2,6,9,13 117,624

1ST DOUBLE

11/2 361

11/6 62.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 21.5

A3

A1