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Sha Tin · 2020-05-27

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-27 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. STRIKING MR C, ridden by K C Leung and trained by T P Yung, won by SH, with GUNNAR second and WAYFOONG CHARMER third. The 3.0 favourite HANDSOME REBEL finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.09.03
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 STRIKING MR C B/TT 1.09.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · T P Yung 8 6.9 SH
2 4 GUNNAR TT H N Wong · C Fownes 11 12.0 SH
3 12 WAYFOONG CHARMER BO V Borges · P O'Sullivan 2 7.9 1/2
4 9 RESOLUTE B/XB1 C Wong · A T Millard 10 17.0 2-3/4
5 3 ELITE BOY B/TT C L Chau · K H Ting 9 13.0 3-1/2
6 2 HANDSOME REBEL B2 Z Purton · Y S Tsui 6 3.0 4-1/4
7 10 STAR SUPERIOR K Teetan · C W Chang 4 6.8 4-1/4
8 7 SKYEY SUPREME B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 15.0 4-3/4
9 6 BREEZE OF SPRING V H T Mo · L Ho 1 16.0 5-3/4
10 1 GOLDIE FLANKER B Shinn · K L Man 7 28.0 7
11 11 VICTORY MASTERY PC A Hamelin · J Size 5 11.0 7-3/4
12 5 BOND A STAR T H So · C H Yip 3 207.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STRIKING MR C2. GUNNAR+0.1L3. WAYFOONG CHARMER+0.5L4. RESOLUTE+2.75L5. ELITE BOY+3.5L6. HANDSOME REBEL+4.25L7. STAR SUPERIOR+4.25L8. SKYEY SUPREME+4.75L9. BREEZE OF SPRING+5.75L10. GOLDIE FLANKER+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick VICTORY MASTERY (17.6%) finished 11th — the winner STRIKING MR C was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 VICTORY MASTERY 17.6% 5.69 11
2 2 HANDSOME REBEL 15.6% 6.43 6
3 6 BREEZE OF SPRING 11.9% 8.38 9
4 12 WAYFOONG CHARMER 11.4% 8.74 3
5 3 ELITE BOY 9.3% 10.81 5
6 7 SKYEY SUPREME 6.7% 14.95 8
7 8 STRIKING MR C 6.5% 15.31 1
8 10 STAR SUPERIOR 6.0% 16.58 7
9 4 GUNNAR 5.9% 16.89 2
10 1 GOLDIE FLANKER 4.2% 23.79 10
11 9 RESOLUTE 4.0% 24.80 4
12 5 BOND A STAR 0.8% 120.34 12
VICTORY MASTERYHANDSOME REBELBREEZE OF SPRINGWAYFOONG CHARMERELITE BOYSKYEY SUPREMESTRIKING MR C — wonSTAR SUPERIORGUNNARGOLDIE FLANKERRESOLUTEBOND A STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 69.5

PLACE

4 37

8 25.5

12 22.5

QUINELLA

4,8 569.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 202

4,12 129.5

8,12 97

TIERCE

8,4,12 6,599

TRIO

4,8,12 1,264

FIRST 4

4,8,9,12 6,911

QUARTET

8,4,12,9 158,945

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,5/4,8,12 63,880

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 28

A3

A1

4TH DOUBLE

3/4 106

3/8 108