Happy Valley · 2020-07-08
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2020-07-08 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. NEXTMODEL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by 2-3/4, with ARDENODE second and FORZA ANGEL third. The 3.0 favourite WE THE SOUTH finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | NEXTMODEL H/TT 0.57.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 12 | 4.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 11 | ARDENODE TT M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 9 | 9.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | FORZA ANGEL B2 K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 10 | 6.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | WINNER'S HEART N Callan · F C Lor | N Callan | F C Lor | 11 | 17.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | EXCELLENT CHARIOT TT A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 5 | 5.6 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | WE THE SOUTH H/XB K H Chan · J Moore | K H Chan | J Moore | 3 | 3.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | NOBLE BIRTH H M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 4 | 11.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 12 | BEAUT BEAUT H/V T H So · L Ho | T H So | L Ho | 6 | 34.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | SEVENTH SEA SR H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 8 | 46.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | DR EQ E1/TT V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 2 | 53.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | UNIVERSAL RECORD C Wong · A T Millard | C Wong | A T Millard | 7 | 94.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | GARLIC HERO TT B Shinn · C H Yip | B Shinn | C H Yip | 1 | 78.0 | 10-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | WE THE SOUTH | 25.2% | 3.97 | 6 |
| 2 | 9 | NEXTMODEL | 17.8% | 5.60 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | ARDENODE | 12.8% | 7.81 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | EXCELLENT CHARIOT | 11.7% | 8.53 | 5 |
| 5 | 6 | NOBLE BIRTH | 9.8% | 10.26 | 7 |
| 6 | 3 | FORZA ANGEL | 8.9% | 11.21 | 3 |
| 7 | 4 | WINNER'S HEART | 5.9% | 16.91 | 4 |
| 8 | 2 | SEVENTH SEA | 2.2% | 44.77 | 9 |
| 9 | 10 | DR EQ | 2.1% | 48.21 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 | BEAUT BEAUT | 1.5% | 66.25 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | UNIVERSAL RECORD | 1.4% | 69.89 | 11 |
| 12 | 5 | GARLIC HERO | 0.6% | 160.41 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 47.5
PLACE
3 20.5
9 17.5
11 26.5
QUINELLA
9,11 245.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,9 56
3,11 84
9,11 80.5
TIERCE
9,11,3 2,158
TRIO
3,9,11 397
FIRST 4
3,4,9,11 994
QUARTET
9,11,3,4 18,339
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,5,12/3,9,11 10,859
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 21.5
A3 —
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
5/9 611
5/11 123.5