Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2020-07-08

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-07-08 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUPREME PLUS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by F C Lor, won by HD, with FOX CHEUNGER second and YEE CHEONG LUCKY third. The 4.6 favourite FOX CHEUNGER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SUPREME PLUS B/XB 1.10.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · F C Lor 8 12.0 HD
2 12 FOX CHEUNGER B/TT K Teetan · K W Lui 3 4.6 HD
3 4 YEE CHEONG LUCKY B M F Poon · A T Millard 4 5.2 3/4
4 10 FLYING MONKEY BO/TT V Borges · J Moore 12 5.9 1
5 3 HAPPY WINNER CP Z Purton · C W Chang 5 14.0 2
6 7 MULTIMAX B C Wong · L Ho 1 8.4 2-1/4
7 8 KWAI CHUNG ELITE B/H/TT- A Hamelin · R Gibson 10 13.0 2-1/4
8 1 PLAY TO WIN H/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 7 25.0 3-1/4
9 6 AURORA STEED V B Shinn · C Fownes 9 13.0 3-1/4
10 9 JUNZI B N Callan · W Y So 2 8.1 3-1/4
11 2 SOLAR VICTORY H K H Chan · P F Yiu 6 31.0 5-1/4
12 11 EXPONENTS V H N Wong · Y S Tsui 11 36.0 5-3/4
0 WINNING WARRIOR · K L Man

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPREME PLUS2. FOX CHEUNGER+0.2L3. YEE CHEONG LUCKY+0.75L4. FLYING MONKEY+1L5. HAPPY WINNER+2L6. MULTIMAX+2.25L7. KWAI CHUNG ELITE+2.25L8. PLAY TO WIN+3.25L9. AURORA STEED+3.25L10. JUNZI+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick YEE CHEONG LUCKY (27.2%) finished 3rd — the winner SUPREME PLUS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 YEE CHEONG LUCKY 27.2% 3.67 3
2 12 FOX CHEUNGER 20.2% 4.96 2
3 8 KWAI CHUNG ELITE 8.1% 12.31 7
4 5 SUPREME PLUS 7.6% 13.11 1
5 3 HAPPY WINNER 6.2% 16.00 5
6 11 EXPONENTS 5.9% 16.88 12
7 6 AURORA STEED 5.8% 17.17 9
8 7 MULTIMAX 5.6% 17.74 6
9 10 FLYING MONKEY 4.6% 21.56 4
10 9 JUNZI 3.7% 26.86 10
11 1 PLAY TO WIN 2.7% 36.97 8
12 2 SOLAR VICTORY 2.2% 46.33 11
YEE CHEONG LUCKYFOX CHEUNGERKWAI CHUNG ELITESUPREME PLUS — wonHAPPY WINNEREXPONENTSAURORA STEEDMULTIMAXFLYING MONKEYJUNZIPLAY TO WINSOLAR VICTORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 124.5

PLACE

4 18.5

5 35

12 16

QUINELLA

5,12 275.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 91.5

4,12 52

5,12 96

TIERCE

5,12,4 2,264

TRIO

4,5,12 338

FIRST 4

4,5,10,12 771

QUARTET

5,12,4,10 22,845

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 29.5

A1

All pools (1 more)

3RD DOUBLE

1/5 577.5

1/12 59.5