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Happy Valley · 2020-07-08

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course A 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2020-07-08 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. GOLDEN SPECTRUM, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with LIGHTNING STEED second and TASHIDELEK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.49.20
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 GOLDEN SPECTRUM Closed strongly CP/TT 1.49.20 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz 4 3.8 1
2 12 LIGHTNING STEED Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 5 5.5 1
3 6 TASHIDELEK Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · J Moore 9 9.3 2
4 2 TOYCOON Closed strongly XB-/CP1 C Y Ho · P F Yiu 7 7.1 4-1/2
5 3 BLASTOISE SR K Teetan · D E Ferraris 2 6.1 5
6 8 BRAVE KING SR A Hamelin · D J Whyte 1 5.7 5-1/4
7 10 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE Closed strongly H H N Wong · K H Ting 8 149.0 6-3/4
8 4 DIVINE UNICORN Led early TT T H So · W Y So 3 31.0 7-1/2
9 5 HEAVENLY THOUGHT B K H Chan · F C Lor 10 39.0 7-1/2
10 9 FUN LEGEND Closed strongly B Shinn · R Gibson 12 160.0 9-1/4
11 7 TOP SCORE B-/TT M F Poon · K W Lui 6 36.0 12-1/4
12 11 OWNERS' STAR B/TT H T Mo · C S Shum 11 12.0 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN SPECTRUM2. LIGHTNING STEED+1L3. TASHIDELEK+2L4. TOYCOON+4.5L5. BLASTOISE+5L6. BRAVE KING+5.25L7. WEALTHY EMPLOYEE+6.75L8. DIVINE UNICORN+7.5L9. HEAVENLY THOUGHT+7.5L10. FUN LEGEND+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick GOLDEN SPECTRUM (23.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 GOLDEN SPECTRUM 23.6% 4.24 1
2 8 BRAVE KING 15.2% 6.57 6
3 12 LIGHTNING STEED 14.8% 6.78 2
4 3 BLASTOISE 13.8% 7.26 5
5 2 TOYCOON 10.0% 10.03 4
6 6 TASHIDELEK 7.5% 13.29 3
7 5 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 4.2% 24.07 9
8 4 DIVINE UNICORN 3.6% 27.72 8
9 11 OWNERS' STAR 3.3% 29.88 12
10 7 TOP SCORE 2.6% 38.09 11
11 10 WEALTHY EMPLOYEE 0.9% 113.22 7
12 9 FUN LEGEND 0.6% 180.13 10
GOLDEN SPECTRUM — wonBRAVE KINGLIGHTNING STEEDBLASTOISETOYCOONTASHIDELEKHEAVENLY THOUGHTDIVINE UNICORNOWNERS' STARTOP SCOREWEALTHY EMPLOYEEFUN LEGEND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 38

PLACE

1 16.5

6 30.5

12 20.5

QUINELLA

1,12 123

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 76

1,12 51.5

6,12 94

TIERCE

1,12,6 2,150

TRIO

1,6,12 368

FIRST 4

1,2,6,12 719

QUARTET

1,12,6,2 14,790

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 22.5

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,5,6,9/1,6,12 5,603

8TH DOUBLE

3/1 318.5

3/12 113

SIX UP

5/9/9/7/3/1 564,428

5,12/9,11/2,9/4,7/3,9/1,12 7,066

1 [K Teetan]

TREBLE

7/3/1 2,397

7/3/12 808