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Happy Valley · 2020-07-08

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-07-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. MOMENTUM HAPPY, ridden by K C Leung and trained by K H Ting, won by 1, with SHINING ON second and SPACE third. The 2.7 favourite FEARLESS FIRE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.10.04
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 MOMENTUM HAPPY B 1.10.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · K H Ting 4 3.3 1
2 12 SHINING ON K Teetan · K W Lui 7 7.2 1
3 8 SPACE B/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 6 13.0 1-3/4
4 1 SPLIT OF A SECOND H M F Poon · L Ho 2 9.0 2-1/4
5 2 FEARLESS FIRE Z Purton · C Fownes 3 2.7 2-3/4
6 3 DAZZLING FEELING TT V Borges · D E Ferraris 12 18.0 3-3/4
7 7 JADE THEATRE B N Callan · K L Man 11 23.0 4-1/4
8 9 ATHENA TT T H So · C H Yip 1 23.0 5-3/4
9 5 NOBLE MAN E/TT A Hamelin · J Size 5 20.0 6
10 10 WONDERFUL TIMES XB/TT B Shinn · A T Millard 10 150.0 8-1/4
11 11 STRATHCLYDE B/TT C Wong · A T Millard 9 45.0 12-1/4
12 4 WONDERFUL TREASURE H1 H W Lai · Y S Tsui 8 123.0 15
0 MELBOURNE HALL B Shinn · D J Hall

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MOMENTUM HAPPY2. SHINING ON+1L3. SPACE+1.75L4. SPLIT OF A SECOND+2.25L5. FEARLESS FIRE+2.75L6. DAZZLING FEELING+3.75L7. JADE THEATRE+4.25L8. ATHENA+5.75L9. NOBLE MAN+6L10. WONDERFUL TIMES+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick FEARLESS FIRE (30.1%) finished 5th — the winner MOMENTUM HAPPY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 FEARLESS FIRE 30.1% 3.33 5
2 12 SHINING ON 15.5% 6.46 2
3 6 MOMENTUM HAPPY 10.2% 9.78 1
4 1 SPLIT OF A SECOND 9.7% 10.28 4
5 8 SPACE 7.5% 13.26 3
6 5 NOBLE MAN 7.5% 13.32 9
7 3 DAZZLING FEELING 5.4% 18.46 6
8 11 STRATHCLYDE 4.0% 24.74 11
9 7 JADE THEATRE 4.0% 25.18 7
10 9 ATHENA 3.6% 28.04 8
11 4 WONDERFUL TREASURE 1.7% 57.70 12
12 10 WONDERFUL TIMES 0.7% 136.52 10
FEARLESS FIRESHINING ONMOMENTUM HAPPY — wonSPLIT OF A SECONDSPACENOBLE MANDAZZLING FEELINGSTRATHCLYDEJADE THEATREATHENAWONDERFUL TREASUREWONDERFUL TIMES

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 33

PLACE

6 12.5

8 28.5

12 22

QUINELLA

6,12 121

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 63

6,12 43

8,12 102.5

TIERCE

6,12,8 1,788

TRIO

6,8,12 352

FIRST 4

1,6,8,12 846

QUARTET

6,12,8,1 13,960

1ST DOUBLE

3/6 547.5

3/12 107

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 20.5