Happy Valley · 2020-07-08
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2020-07-08 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WIND N GRASS, ridden by C Wong and trained by J Size, won by 1/2, with LITTLE BIRD second and VICTORY POWER third. The 4.8 favourite BEAUTY SPARK finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | WIND N GRASS TT 1.09.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Wong · J Size | C Wong | J Size | 3 | 7.8 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | LITTLE BIRD V M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 2 | 7.7 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | VICTORY POWER B/XB K C Leung · D J Whyte | K C Leung | D J Whyte | 6 | 5.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | BEAUTY SPARK B/TT K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 1 | 4.8 | 3 |
| 5 | 1 | SEVEN HEAVENS TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 10 | 6.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 4 | 14.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | SUNSET WATCH P- M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 5 | 18.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | CALIFORNIA GUNGHO B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 12 | 10.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | WON BALL T H So · D J Hall | T H So | D J Hall | 9 | 126.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 10 | 8 | TELECOM PUMA SR/TT H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 8 | 26.0 | 14 |
| 11 | 6 | JUST NOT LISTENING V V Borges · J Moore | V Borges | J Moore | 11 | 32.0 | 15-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | TOM'S STYLE TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 10.0 | 15-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BEAUTY SPARK | 12.9% | 7.75 | 4 |
| 2 | 11 | MASTER ALBERT | 11.9% | 8.42 | 6 |
| 3 | 9 | VICTORY POWER | 11.9% | 8.43 | 3 |
| 4 | 7 | WIND N GRASS | 10.9% | 9.14 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | SEVEN HEAVENS | 9.7% | 10.32 | 5 |
| 6 | 5 | CALIFORNIA GUNGHO | 8.9% | 11.23 | 8 |
| 7 | 6 | JUST NOT LISTENING | 7.7% | 13.00 | 11 |
| 8 | 2 | SUNSET WATCH | 7.7% | 13.02 | 7 |
| 9 | 12 | TOM'S STYLE | 6.4% | 15.71 | 12 |
| 10 | 4 | LITTLE BIRD | 5.7% | 17.59 | 2 |
| 11 | 8 | TELECOM PUMA | 5.6% | 17.98 | 10 |
| 12 | 10 | WON BALL | 0.8% | 118.98 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 78.5
PLACE
4 25
7 28.5
9 18
QUINELLA
4,7 317.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 109.5
4,9 88
7,9 78.5
TIERCE
7,4,9 3,059
TRIO
4,7,9 590
FIRST 4
3,4,7,9 467
QUARTET
7,4,9,3 11,624
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,9,12/4,7,9 519,053
All pools (3 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 39
A3 —
A2 —
6TH DOUBLE
9/4 58
9/7 281
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,9,11/2,9,12/Any Combination 114,660