Happy Valley · 2020-09-16
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-09-16 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. ALL YOU KNOW, ridden by K Teetan and trained by R Gibson, won by N, with PLAY WISE second and TELECOM ROCKET third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite FOCUS finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ALL YOU KNOW Closed strongly B-/CP2/H2/TT 1.39.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · R Gibson | K Teetan | R Gibson | 4 | 8.6 | N |
| 2 | 7 | PLAY WISE Closed strongly B M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 3 | 9.5 | N |
| 3 | 4 | TELECOM ROCKET CP A Hamelin · Y S Tsui | A Hamelin | Y S Tsui | 2 | 5.2 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | EXALTATION Closed strongly V/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz | K C Leung | A S Cruz | 9 | 42.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | DYNAMIC EAGLE Closed strongly B/H/XB/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 6 | 19.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | PERFECT TO PLAY Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 5 | 5.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | STARLIGHT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 1 | 28.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | GO BALLISTIC Closed strongly SR/TT A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 10 | 6.2 | 4 |
| 9 | 3 | SHADOW BREAKER TT C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 7 | 8.7 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | FOCUS Led early J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 8 | 4.5 | 21-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 29.0% | 3.45 | 6 |
| 2 | 4 | TELECOM ROCKET | 24.2% | 4.13 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | FOCUS | 10.4% | 9.64 | 10 |
| 4 | 3 | SHADOW BREAKER | 9.8% | 10.16 | 9 |
| 5 | 1 | DYNAMIC EAGLE | 8.4% | 11.94 | 5 |
| 6 | 9 | GO BALLISTIC | 4.7% | 21.21 | 8 |
| 7 | 5 | ALL YOU KNOW | 4.3% | 23.03 | 1 |
| 8 | 7 | PLAY WISE | 3.4% | 29.42 | 2 |
| 9 | 8 | EXALTATION | 3.3% | 30.68 | 4 |
| 10 | 10 | STARLIGHT | 2.5% | 40.24 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 86
PLACE
4 17.5
5 27.5
7 29
QUINELLA
5,7 474
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 75.5
4,7 93.5
5,7 140.5
FORECAST
5,7 618
TIERCE
5,7,4 4,658
TRIO
4,5,7 940
FIRST 4
4,5,7,8 5,914
QUARTET
5,7,4,8 127,332
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 20
A1 —
A3 —