Happy Valley · 2020-09-16
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-09-16 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HERCULES, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by 2-3/4, with LUCKY QUALITY second and JADE THEATRE third. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | HERCULES CP-/B1 1.09.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 10 | 4.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | LUCKY QUALITY C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 3 | 13.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 11 | JADE THEATRE B C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 1 | 8.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | INCANTO PREPARED E/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 4 | 5.3 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | AMBITIOUS HEART CP-/B2/TT A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 5 | 16.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | HIN YUEN BIS TT H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 9 | 54.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 12 | MANNA FROM HEAVEN H H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 12 | 262.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 2 | NORDIC WARRIOR B A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 8 | 4.4 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | SPACE B/TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 2 | 9.6 | 10 |
| 10 | 1 | VICTORY IN HAND B1/TT K Teetan · K W Lui | K Teetan | K W Lui | 11 | 7.4 | 10 |
| 11 | 4 | VERY RICH MAN H H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 7 | 39.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 12 | 6 | SUNNY SMILE H1 V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 6 | 204.0 | 30-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | INCANTO PREPARED | 29.8% | 3.35 | 4 |
| 2 | 11 | JADE THEATRE | 12.0% | 8.32 | 3 |
| 3 | 5 | LUCKY QUALITY | 10.9% | 9.17 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | HERCULES | 10.8% | 9.28 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | VICTORY IN HAND | 10.5% | 9.53 | 10 |
| 6 | 9 | SPACE | 9.9% | 10.12 | 9 |
| 7 | 2 | NORDIC WARRIOR | 8.2% | 12.20 | 8 |
| 8 | 3 | AMBITIOUS HEART | 3.5% | 28.57 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | VERY RICH MAN | 1.7% | 59.74 | 11 |
| 10 | 8 | HIN YUEN BIS | 1.3% | 76.00 | 6 |
| 11 | 12 | MANNA FROM HEAVEN | 0.8% | 125.67 | 7 |
| 12 | 6 | SUNNY SMILE | 0.6% | 160.47 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 40.5
PLACE
5 29
7 17.5
11 25.5
QUINELLA
5,7 289
QUINELLA PLACE
5,7 93
5,11 129.5
7,11 71
FORECAST
7,5 245
TIERCE
7,5,11 2,646
TRIO
5,7,11 755
FIRST 4
5,7,10,11 657
QUARTET
7,5,11,10 12,102
All pools (5 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,6/5,7,11 16,643
3 PICK 1
A1 23
A2 —
A3 —
5TH DOUBLE
6/5 77.5
6/7 169
TRIPLE TRIO
3,4,12/2,4,6/5,7,11 261,184
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,4,12/2,4,6/Any Combination 487