Happy Valley · 2020-09-16
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2020-09-16 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GREEN AEON, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with SAUL'S SPECIAL second and HEART CONQUERED third. The 3.4 favourite ETERNAL HARVEST finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | GREEN AEON 0.56.78 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 3 | 5.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | SAUL'S SPECIAL B/H Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 5 | 4.5 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 7 | HEART CONQUERED XB-/TT1 A Hamelin · R Gibson | A Hamelin | R Gibson | 1 | 8.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | LOVING A BOOM B/TT C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 2 | 8.2 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | ETERNAL HARVEST C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 4 | 3.4 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | VERY SWEET ORANGE V H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 6 | 63.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 11 | NEXTMODEL H/TT M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 10 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 10 | AMAZING KIWI XB/B2 A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 7 | 31.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | MOMENT OF POWER B C L Chau · P O'Sullivan | C L Chau | P O'Sullivan | 11 | 42.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 6 | FLYING GENIUS TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 9 | 13.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | BALTIC WHISPER TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 8 | 91.0 | 5-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | ETERNAL HARVEST | 34.9% | 2.87 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | GREEN AEON | 18.3% | 5.46 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | FLYING GENIUS | 10.7% | 9.37 | 10 |
| 4 | 11 | NEXTMODEL | 10.5% | 9.53 | 7 |
| 5 | 7 | HEART CONQUERED | 6.8% | 14.72 | 3 |
| 6 | 1 | LOVING A BOOM | 5.7% | 17.47 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | SAUL'S SPECIAL | 4.5% | 22.36 | 2 |
| 8 | 10 | AMAZING KIWI | 2.9% | 34.41 | 8 |
| 9 | 4 | MOMENT OF POWER | 2.3% | 43.59 | 9 |
| 10 | 5 | BALTIC WHISPER | 2.3% | 43.90 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | VERY SWEET ORANGE | 1.2% | 82.33 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 50
PLACE
2 18
3 18
7 25.5
QUINELLA
2,3 151
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 55.5
2,7 86.5
3,7 75.5
FORECAST
3,2 375
TIERCE
3,2,7 2,410
TRIO
2,3,7 444
FIRST 4
1,2,3,7 602
QUARTET
3,2,7,1 16,419
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 24
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,12/2,3,7 67,974
7TH DOUBLE
12/2 137.5
12/3 877
SIX UP
2,7/3,12/2,6/5,7/2,12/2,3 21,425
7/3/6/7/12/3 1,077,569
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
7/12/2 760
7/12/3 4,256