Happy Valley · 2020-09-16

Race 2

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 9 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-09-16 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SHAMPORT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-3/4, with MIG ENERGY second and THE RUNNER third. The 2.8 favourite LE TERROIR finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.02

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	SHAMPORT TT 1.09.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	2	121 lb	3.8	1-3/4
2	2	MIG ENERGY XB/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	7	128 lb	4.5	1-3/4
3	5	THE RUNNER SR C Y Ho · F C Lor	C Y Ho	F C Lor	5	122 lb	5.6	2-1/4
4	9	LE TERROIR CP/XB A Badel · K W Lui	A Badel	K W Lui	4	118 lb	2.8	3-1/2
5	8	MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT V Borges · W Y So	V Borges	W Y So	8	119 lb	18.0	3-3/4
6	4	FLYING ON THE TURF B/TT K C Leung · K H Ting	K C Leung	K H Ting	6	122 lb	24.0	4-1/2
7	1	PRINCE OF BON BON B C L Chau · D E Ferraris	C L Chau	D E Ferraris	1	122 lb	155.0	7
8	7	JOLLY GOOD HEART H/CP1/XB1 K Teetan · D J Whyte	K Teetan	D J Whyte	3	120 lb	13.0	7-3/4
9	3	PEACH BLOSSOMS M F Poon · D J Hall	M F Poon	D J Hall	9	121 lb	47.0	8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick MIG ENERGY (36.2%) finished 2nd — the winner SHAMPORT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	MIG ENERGY	36.2%	2.76	2	4.5
2	6	SHAMPORT	22.1%	4.52	1	3.8
3	5	THE RUNNER	18.9%	5.30	3	5.6
4	8	MASTER ALBERT	11.0%	9.11	5	18.0
5	9	LE TERROIR	6.9%	14.52	4	2.8
6	3	PEACH BLOSSOMS	2.3%	44.11	9	47.0
7	4	FLYING ON THE TURF	1.1%	87.20	6	24.0
8	7	JOLLY GOOD HEART	1.0%	95.90	8	13.0
9	1	PRINCE OF BON BON	0.5%	201.22	7	155.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 38.5

PLACE

2 17.5

5 19

6 13.5

QUINELLA

2,6 85.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 49

2,6 31

5,6 34.5

FORECAST

6,2 160

TIERCE

6,2,5 491

TRIO

2,5,6 106

FIRST 4

2,5,6,9 64

QUARTET

6,2,5,9 1,360

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

5/2 49.5

5/6 245

3 PICK 1

A1 21

A3 —

A2 —

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