Happy Valley · 2020-09-16
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2020-09-16 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SUPREME PLUS, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with HAPPY GOOD GUYS second and SELL MY SOLE third. The 1.6 favourite SELL MY SOLE finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | SUPREME PLUS B/XB 1.10.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 2 | 10.0 | SH |
| 2 | 2 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 8 | 42.0 | SH |
| 3 | 3 | SELL MY SOLE E J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 1.6 | N |
| 4 | 9 | DAILY BEAUTY TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 6 | 5.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | HONEST WAY CP A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 9 | 16.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | ORIENTAL ELITE B- N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 14.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 5 | SPRINT FORWARD XB-/B/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 4 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | SPLIT OF A SECOND H C L Chau · L Ho | C L Chau | L Ho | 11 | 43.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | RUN THE TABLE H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 10 | 45.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | COMPASSION STAR M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 5 | 28.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | FLYING PHOTOS B V Borges · Y S Tsui | V Borges | Y S Tsui | 3 | 206.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | ALLOY KING M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 12 | 293.0 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SELL MY SOLE | 38.6% | 2.59 | 3 |
| 2 | 9 | DAILY BEAUTY | 21.5% | 4.66 | 4 |
| 3 | 12 | SUPREME PLUS | 11.4% | 8.75 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | SPRINT FORWARD | 8.3% | 12.09 | 7 |
| 5 | 6 | ORIENTAL ELITE | 4.6% | 21.88 | 6 |
| 6 | 7 | SPLIT OF A SECOND | 4.4% | 22.84 | 8 |
| 7 | 1 | HONEST WAY | 4.1% | 24.48 | 5 |
| 8 | 4 | COMPASSION STAR | 3.2% | 31.16 | 10 |
| 9 | 2 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 1.9% | 52.36 | 2 |
| 10 | 11 | RUN THE TABLE | 1.2% | 86.63 | 9 |
| 11 | 8 | ALLOY KING | 0.5% | 206.80 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | FLYING PHOTOS | 0.4% | 249.52 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 101.5
PLACE
2 77
3 11.5
12 23.5
QUINELLA
2,12 1,827
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 101.5
2,12 381
3,12 34.5
FORECAST
12,2 4,143
TIERCE
12,2,3 11,081
TRIO
2,3,12 538
FIRST 4
2,3,9,12 594
QUARTET
12,2,3,9 30,442
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 27
A3 —
6TH DOUBLE
7/2 340.5
7/12 580.5