Happy Valley · 2020-09-16
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-09-16 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. V CHEVALIERS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by K L Man, won by 1, with VIRTUS STAR second and WONDERFUL TIGER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly H/P 1.40.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 6 | 2.5 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | VIRTUS STAR Closed strongly B-/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 1 | 4.6 | 1 |
| 3 | 4 | WONDERFUL TIGER Closed strongly H/XB/TT C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 4 | 17.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | JOY MASTER Closed strongly V/TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 5 | 8.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | NITRO EXPRESS Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 7 | 14.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | BABY STORM Led early H/TT B Shinn · L Ho | B Shinn | L Ho | 10 | 23.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | TREASURE CHEST B/XB C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 11 | 7.2 | 5 |
| 8 | 2 | POLYMER LUCK B C L Chau · K H Ting | C L Chau | K H Ting | 9 | 17.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | THE JOY OF GIVING Closed strongly B A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 2 | 49.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | THE FULL BLOOM Closed strongly K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 8 | 25.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | ROYAL CHOCOLATE B/XB/TT A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 3 | 21.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 6 | DRAGON PRIDE XB-/B V Borges · D A Hayes | V Borges | D A Hayes | 12 | 45.0 | 8-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | JOY MASTER | 26.9% | 3.72 | 4 |
| 2 | 3 | V CHEVALIERS | 17.2% | 5.83 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | VIRTUS STAR | 16.9% | 5.90 | 2 |
| 4 | 9 | TREASURE CHEST | 10.6% | 9.42 | 7 |
| 5 | 10 | ROYAL CHOCOLATE | 5.6% | 17.74 | 11 |
| 6 | 5 | BABY STORM | 4.6% | 21.63 | 6 |
| 7 | 8 | THE JOY OF GIVING | 4.0% | 25.25 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | NITRO EXPRESS | 3.5% | 28.95 | 5 |
| 9 | 11 | THE FULL BLOOM | 3.4% | 29.69 | 10 |
| 10 | 2 | POLYMER LUCK | 3.0% | 33.85 | 8 |
| 11 | 4 | WONDERFUL TIGER | 2.9% | 34.01 | 3 |
| 12 | 6 | DRAGON PRIDE | 1.4% | 69.23 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 25.5
PLACE
3 13.5
4 39
12 15.5
QUINELLA
3,12 72.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 74
3,12 33.5
4,12 124
FORECAST
3,12 120
TIERCE
3,12,4 863
TRIO
3,4,12 273
FIRST 4
1,3,4,12 296
QUARTET
3,12,4,1 3,761
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,7/3,4,12 19,584
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 16.5
3RD DOUBLE
7/3 426
7/12 102