Happy Valley · 2020-09-16
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2020-09-16 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LIGHTNING STEED, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with JOLLY HONOUR second and HEAVENLY THOUGHT third. The winner led throughout. The 3.1 favourite SMILING CITY finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | LIGHTNING STEED Wire to wire TT 1.39.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 1 | 3.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | JOLLY HONOUR Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 5 | 5.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT B J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 7 | 9.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | SMILING CITY Closed strongly SR V Borges · D J Whyte | V Borges | D J Whyte | 6 | 3.1 | 3 |
| 5 | 7 | MAGNETISM B/TT A Hamelin · D E Ferraris | A Hamelin | D E Ferraris | 2 | 40.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | TANGMERE Closed strongly TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 9 | 26.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | XIANG BAI QI B N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 4 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | NOBLE STEED C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 10 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 9 | KIRAM H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 3 | 54.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR B A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 8 | 10.0 | 11-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | LIGHTNING STEED | 30.4% | 3.29 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | SMILING CITY | 17.6% | 5.68 | 4 |
| 3 | 4 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 17.0% | 5.89 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | XIANG BAI QI | 10.1% | 9.90 | 7 |
| 5 | 2 | JOLLY HONOUR | 7.4% | 13.58 | 2 |
| 6 | 1 | NOBLE STEED | 4.7% | 21.37 | 8 |
| 7 | 10 | LONDON LUCKYSTAR | 4.6% | 21.88 | 10 |
| 8 | 7 | MAGNETISM | 3.5% | 28.42 | 5 |
| 9 | 5 | TANGMERE | 2.6% | 38.94 | 6 |
| 10 | 9 | KIRAM | 2.2% | 45.63 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 34.5
PLACE
2 16
4 21.5
6 14
QUINELLA
2,6 111.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 55
2,6 40
4,6 47.5
FORECAST
6,2 159
TIERCE
6,2,4 806
TRIO
2,4,6 183
FIRST 4
2,4,6,8 74
QUARTET
6,2,4,8 1,830
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 16.5
4TH DOUBLE
3/2 40
3/6 84.5