Happy Valley · 2020-09-23
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-09-23 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FARM BUMPER, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/4, with WILD WEST WING second and MANAGEMENT SUPREME third. The 2.7 favourite NAMJONG SINGS finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | FARM BUMPER 0.57.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 6 | 11.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 8 | WILD WEST WING J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 9 | 9.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | MANAGEMENT SUPREME C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 10 | 9.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | WE THE SOUTH H/XB V Borges · F C Lor | V Borges | F C Lor | 11 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 11 | ARDENODE TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 8 | 4.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | NAMJONG SINGS B Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 4 | 2.7 | 2 |
| 7 | 4 | FORZA ANGEL B A Hamelin · Y S Tsui | A Hamelin | Y S Tsui | 5 | 14.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 10 | TRAVEL DATUK B A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 3 | 7.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | ALL BEST FRIENDS B M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 2 | 76.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 3 | AFTER ME H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 1 | 67.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | SMILING FACE XB/B2 B Shinn · D J Whyte | B Shinn | D J Whyte | 7 | 79.0 | 5-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | WILD WEST WING | 27.0% | 3.71 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | FARM BUMPER | 11.5% | 8.67 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | NAMJONG SINGS | 11.1% | 9.00 | 6 |
| 4 | 10 | TRAVEL DATUK | 9.6% | 10.44 | 8 |
| 5 | 5 | MANAGEMENT SUPREME | 8.8% | 11.36 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | ARDENODE | 8.5% | 11.81 | 5 |
| 7 | 1 | WE THE SOUTH | 8.2% | 12.16 | 4 |
| 8 | 4 | FORZA ANGEL | 8.0% | 12.54 | 7 |
| 9 | 6 | ALL BEST FRIENDS | 2.7% | 37.52 | 9 |
| 10 | 3 | AFTER ME | 2.5% | 40.78 | 10 |
| 11 | 7 | SMILING FACE | 2.2% | 44.81 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 117.5
PLACE
5 29.5
8 27
9 26
QUINELLA
8,9 406
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 122.5
5,9 159
8,9 112
FORECAST
9,8 618
TIERCE
9,8,5 8,160
TRIO
5,8,9 1,606
FIRST 4
1,5,8,9 1,876
QUARTET
9,8,5,1 44,958
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
4/8 23.5
4/9 82.5
12/8 53.5
12/9 207
3 PICK 1
A3 32.5
A2 —
A1 —