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Happy Valley · 2020-09-23

Race 4

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-09-23 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. TASHIDELEK, ridden by A Badel and trained by D J Whyte, won by 3/4, with NAMJONG PLUS second and REEL BIZZY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.7 favourite NAMJONG PLUS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 TASHIDELEK Closed strongly B/TT- 1.39.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · D J Whyte 8 10.0 3/4
2 3 NAMJONG PLUS Closed strongly A Hamelin · Y S Tsui 1 4.7 3/4
3 2 REEL BIZZY Closed strongly B C Y Ho · C S Shum 2 5.7 1-1/2
4 1 DELIGHTFUL LAOS Closed strongly B1/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 4 8.7 1-3/4
5 9 RICH AND LUCKY XB K C Leung · L Ho 3 7.3 2
6 6 WEALTHY DELIGHT Closed strongly E C Schofield · J Size 6 17.0 2-1/4
7 8 BRAVE KING Closed strongly SR/XB1 M F Poon · D J Whyte 5 19.0 3
8 10 WINNING ENDEAVOUR Closed strongly H W Lai · D E Ferraris 7 12.0 3-1/4
9 4 FLASH FAMOUS B/TT J Moreira · F C Lor 9 6.4 3-1/2
10 11 URBAN DANCER Led early TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 10 21.0 7-1/2
11 7 ENSHRINED H/TT Z Purton · C Fownes 11 11.0 22-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TASHIDELEK2. NAMJONG PLUS+0.75L3. REEL BIZZY+1.5L4. DELIGHTFUL LAOS+1.75L5. RICH AND LUCKY+2L6. WEALTHY DELIGHT+2.25L7. BRAVE KING+3L8. WINNING ENDEAVOUR+3.25L9. FLASH FAMOUS+3.5L10. URBAN DANCER+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick REEL BIZZY (16.6%) finished 3rd — the winner TASHIDELEK was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 REEL BIZZY 16.6% 6.03 3
2 4 FLASH FAMOUS 14.4% 6.97 9
3 7 ENSHRINED 13.2% 7.59 11
4 1 DELIGHTFUL LAOS 12.9% 7.73 4
5 8 BRAVE KING 9.0% 11.09 7
6 5 TASHIDELEK 8.3% 12.11 1
7 9 RICH AND LUCKY 8.1% 12.40 5
8 3 NAMJONG PLUS 6.6% 15.15 2
9 6 WEALTHY DELIGHT 4.4% 22.80 6
10 10 WINNING ENDEAVOUR 4.1% 24.14 8
11 11 URBAN DANCER 2.5% 39.88 10
REEL BIZZYFLASH FAMOUSENSHRINEDDELIGHTFUL LAOSBRAVE KINGTASHIDELEK — wonRICH AND LUCKYNAMJONG PLUSWEALTHY DELIGHTWINNING ENDEAVOURURBAN DANCER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 101.5

PLACE

2 19

3 18

5 35

QUINELLA

3,5 252.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 49

2,5 84.5

3,5 87.5

FORECAST

5,3 756

TIERCE

5,3,2 2,492

TRIO

2,3,5 321

FIRST 4

1,2,3,5 887

QUARTET

5,3,2,1 19,679

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,8,9/2,3,5 65,403

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 24

3RD DOUBLE

9/3 80.5

9/5 935.5