Happy Valley · 2020-10-28
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2020-10-28 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. U W BROTHER, ridden by J Moreira and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 2-1/2, with FLYING MONKEY second and SPEEDY OPTIMIST third. Victory came as the 2.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | U W BROTHER 0.56.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 1 | 2.1 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 9 | FLYING MONKEY BO2/TT A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 7 | 8.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | SPEEDY OPTIMIST Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 11 | 7.3 | 4-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN V C L Chau · L Ho | C L Chau | L Ho | 8 | 7.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | EVERBRAVE B C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 9 | 21.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | TINKER BELLE B N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 5 | 75.0 | 7 |
| 7 | 10 | LA BOMBA B-/TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 2 | 18.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | SHOW MISSION B M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 4 | 22.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | TARGET FINDER H-/XB/B2 H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 6 | 49.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 8 | AURORA STEED V K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 3 | 7.3 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | STRATHCLYDE B-/CP2/TT C Wong · A T Millard | C Wong | A T Millard | 12 | 58.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | HAPPY WINNER CP C Y Ho · C W Chang | C Y Ho | C W Chang | 10 | 45.0 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | U W BROTHER | 31.5% | 3.17 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | AURORA STEED | 12.3% | 8.12 | 10 |
| 3 | 7 | CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN | 11.7% | 8.54 | 4 |
| 4 | 3 | SPEEDY OPTIMIST | 10.5% | 9.51 | 3 |
| 5 | 10 | LA BOMBA | 9.8% | 10.24 | 7 |
| 6 | 9 | FLYING MONKEY | 6.5% | 15.36 | 2 |
| 7 | 4 | HAPPY WINNER | 5.5% | 18.17 | 12 |
| 8 | 12 | TARGET FINDER | 3.9% | 25.72 | 9 |
| 9 | 11 | SHOW MISSION | 3.0% | 32.83 | 8 |
| 10 | 2 | EVERBRAVE | 2.8% | 35.48 | 5 |
| 11 | 5 | STRATHCLYDE | 1.2% | 81.84 | 11 |
| 12 | 1 | TINKER BELLE | 1.2% | 83.29 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 21.5
PLACE
3 25
6 12.5
9 19
QUINELLA
6,9 72
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 41
3,9 85.5
6,9 31.5
FORECAST
6,9 143
TIERCE
6,9,3 610
TRIO
3,6,9 146
FIRST 4
3,6,7,9 239
QUARTET
6,9,3,7 4,438
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 17