Happy Valley · 2020-10-28
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2020-10-28 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. BEST ALLIANCE, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by D J Whyte, won by SH, with CINQUANTE CINQ second and LEAP OF FAITH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite NABOO STAR finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | BEST ALLIANCE Closed strongly XB 1.39.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 10 | 33.0 | SH |
| 2 | 3 | CINQUANTE CINQ Closed strongly C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 6.2 | SH |
| 3 | 7 | LEAP OF FAITH Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 7 | 4.3 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | NABOO STAR Closed strongly V/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 3.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | FLYING SWORD Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 4 | 5.7 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | BRAVE KING Closed strongly SR-/XB/B2 A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 6 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 11 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | PRINCE OF FROG Led early H/P/XB M Chadwick · L Ho | M Chadwick | L Ho | 9 | 18.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 10 | SUPERBELLA V K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 5 | 85.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | CHAMPION SUPREME Closed strongly B/TT T Piccone · Y S Tsui | T Piccone | Y S Tsui | 12 | 42.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 4 | REGENCY BO BO B/TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 8 | 16.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | HELLO BEAUTY B/TT C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 2 | 41.0 | 12 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LEAP OF FAITH | 27.8% | 3.60 | 3 |
| 2 | 5 | FLYING SWORD | 16.3% | 6.13 | 5 |
| 3 | 2 | NABOO STAR | 12.6% | 7.95 | 4 |
| 4 | 3 | CINQUANTE CINQ | 10.6% | 9.46 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | BRAVE KING | 7.4% | 13.46 | 6 |
| 6 | 4 | REGENCY BO BO | 6.1% | 16.31 | 11 |
| 7 | 9 | SUMSTREETSUMWHERE | 5.8% | 17.37 | 7 |
| 8 | 1 | CHAMPION SUPREME | 4.5% | 22.09 | 10 |
| 9 | 6 | PRINCE OF FROG | 4.3% | 23.13 | 8 |
| 10 | 8 | HELLO BEAUTY | 1.9% | 52.89 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | BEST ALLIANCE | 1.8% | 55.69 | 1 |
| 12 | 10 | SUPERBELLA | 0.9% | 107.38 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 330.5
PLACE
3 21
7 18
12 71.5
QUINELLA
3,12 739.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 60.5
3,12 192.5
7,12 198
FORECAST
12,3 2,306
TIERCE
12,3,7 13,516
TRIO
3,7,12 1,003
FIRST 4
2,3,7,12 926
QUARTET
12,3,7,2 36,229
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,8/3,7,12 318,666
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 33.5
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
1/3 92.5
1/12 2,677.5