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Happy Valley · 2020-10-28

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-10-28 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. V CHEVALIERS, ridden by A Badel and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with PLAY WISE second and REGENCY MASTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite REGENCY MASTER finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.40.41
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly P-/H 1.40.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K L Man 8 8.5 SH
2 6 PLAY WISE Closed strongly B M F Poon · C H Yip 4 5.7 SH
3 1 REGENCY MASTER Led early TT Z Purton · C S Shum 11 3.9 3/4
4 5 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB B Shinn · D J Hall 10 17.0 1
5 9 SHANGHAI GRACE C Schofield · Y S Tsui 1 15.0 2
6 8 FEARLESS FIRE Closed strongly CP- C L Chau · D A Hayes 7 14.0 2-1/4
7 3 FAITHFUL TRINITY H/TT V Borges · W Y So 2 4.9 3-1/4
8 2 KING'S RACE B/TT K Teetan · K H Ting 5 8.5 5-1/4
9 10 CALIFORNIA LEGEND TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 6 9.7 5-1/4
10 7 DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly T Piccone · K W Lui 9 40.0 7-3/4
11 4 AMAZING LUCK CP-/B2 N Callan · P O'Sullivan 12 34.0 10-1/4
11 HAPPY ICHIBAN C Y Ho · D J Whyte

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. V CHEVALIERS2. PLAY WISE+0.1L3. REGENCY MASTER+0.75L4. MALDIVES+1L5. SHANGHAI GRACE+2L6. FEARLESS FIRE+2.25L7. FAITHFUL TRINITY+3.25L8. KING'S RACE+5.25L9. CALIFORNIA LEGEND+5.25L10. DIONYSUS COLLIN+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick REGENCY MASTER (17.3%) finished 3rd — the winner V CHEVALIERS was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 REGENCY MASTER 17.3% 5.79 3
2 2 KING'S RACE 15.8% 6.31 8
3 3 FAITHFUL TRINITY 14.5% 6.90 7
4 10 CALIFORNIA LEGEND 9.8% 10.25 9
5 6 PLAY WISE 9.5% 10.47 2
6 12 V CHEVALIERS 8.0% 12.58 1
7 5 MALDIVES 6.3% 15.82 4
8 8 FEARLESS FIRE 5.8% 17.27 6
9 9 SHANGHAI GRACE 5.4% 18.42 5
10 7 DIONYSUS COLLIN 4.3% 23.11 10
11 4 AMAZING LUCK 3.3% 30.50 11
REGENCY MASTERKING'S RACEFAITHFUL TRINITYCALIFORNIA LEGENDPLAY WISEV CHEVALIERS — wonMALDIVESFEARLESS FIRESHANGHAI GRACEDIONYSUS COLLINAMAZING LUCK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 85.5

PLACE

1 17

6 18.5

12 26.5

QUINELLA

6,12 254.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 44.5

1,12 69

6,12 86.5

FORECAST

12,6 720

TIERCE

12,6,1 2,405

TRIO

1,6,12 331

FIRST 4

1,5,6,12 857

QUARTET

12,6,1,5 26,625

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 24

A2

5TH DOUBLE

12/6 345.5

12/12 3,285.5