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Happy Valley · 2020-10-28

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.41
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly P-/H 1.40.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K L Man 8 8.5 SH
2 0 PLAY WISE Closed strongly B M F Poon · C H Yip 4 5.7 SH
3 0 REGENCY MASTER Led early TT Z Purton · C S Shum 11 3.9 3/4
4 0 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB B Shinn · D J Hall 10 17.0 1
5 0 SHANGHAI GRACE C Schofield · Y S Tsui 1 15.0 2
6 0 FEARLESS FIRE Closed strongly CP- C L Chau · D A Hayes 7 14.0 2-1/4
7 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY H/TT V Borges · W Y So 2 4.9 3-1/4
8 0 KING'S RACE B/TT K Teetan · K H Ting 5 8.5 5-1/4
9 0 CALIFORNIA LEGEND TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 6 9.7 5-1/4
10 0 DIONYSUS COLLIN Closed strongly T Piccone · K W Lui 9 40.0 7-3/4
11 0 AMAZING LUCK CP-/B2 N Callan · P O'Sullivan 12 34.0 10-1/4
— 0 HAPPY ICHIBAN C Y Ho · D J Whyte — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-10-28 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. V CHEVALIERS, ridden by A Badel and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with PLAY WISE second and REGENCY MASTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite REGENCY MASTER finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. V CHEVALIERS—2. PLAY WISE+0.1L3. REGENCY MASTER+0.75L4. MALDIVES+1L5. SHANGHAI GRACE+2L6. FEARLESS FIRE+2.25L7. FAITHFUL TRINITY+3.25L8. KING'S RACE+5.25L9. CALIFORNIA LEGEND+5.25L10. DIONYSUS COLLIN+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick REGENCY MASTER (17.3%) finished 3rd — the winner V CHEVALIERS was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 REGENCY MASTER 17.3% 5.79 3
2 0 KING'S RACE 15.8% 6.31 8
3 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY 14.5% 6.90 7
4 0 CALIFORNIA LEGEND 9.8% 10.25 9
5 0 PLAY WISE 9.5% 10.47 2
6 0 V CHEVALIERS 8.0% 12.58 1
7 0 MALDIVES 6.3% 15.82 4
8 0 FEARLESS FIRE 5.8% 17.27 6
9 0 SHANGHAI GRACE 5.4% 18.42 5
10 0 DIONYSUS COLLIN 4.3% 23.11 10
11 0 AMAZING LUCK 3.3% 30.50 11
REGENCY MASTERKING'S RACEFAITHFUL TRINITYCALIFORNIA LEGENDPLAY WISEV CHEVALIERS — wonMALDIVESFEARLESS FIRESHANGHAI GRACEDIONYSUS COLLINAMAZING LUCK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 85.5

PLACE

1 17

6 18.5

12 26.5

QUINELLA

6,12 254.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 44.5

1,12 69

6,12 86.5

FORECAST

12,6 720

TIERCE

12,6,1 2,405

TRIO

1,6,12 331

FIRST 4

1,5,6,12 857

QUARTET

12,6,1,5 26,625

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 24

A2 —

5TH DOUBLE

12/6 345.5

12/12 3,285.5