Happy Valley · 2020-10-28
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2020-10-28 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. COLUMBUS COUNTY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by C Fownes, won by 2-1/4, with BEAR AGAIN second and STAR SHINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | COLUMBUS COUNTY Closed strongly H/TT 1.49.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 1 | 3.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 7 | BEAR AGAIN Led early SR V Borges · D E Ferraris | V Borges | D E Ferraris | 11 | 19.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | STAR SHINE Closed strongly TT T Piccone · K W Lui | T Piccone | K W Lui | 10 | 15.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 5 | INSAYSHABLE N Callan · Y S Tsui | N Callan | Y S Tsui | 7 | 8.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | PACKING WALTHAM Closed strongly TT1 K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 11 | TIANCHI MONSTER M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 6 | 7.5 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly SR M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 12 | 39.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 | AMAZING ONE PLUS TT K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 8 | 8.6 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | ENRICHMENT B C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 4 | 17.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 4 | ENJOYING B/XB C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 2 | 12.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | RELIABLE TEAM B Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 5 | 6.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | AMAZING BEATS CP/TT1 M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 24.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | COLUMBUS COUNTY | 32.4% | 3.09 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | RELIABLE TEAM | 19.0% | 5.27 | 11 |
| 3 | 11 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 7.0% | 14.21 | 6 |
| 4 | 3 | STAR SHINE | 6.1% | 16.38 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | AMAZING BEATS | 6.1% | 16.52 | 12 |
| 6 | 4 | ENJOYING | 6.0% | 16.60 | 10 |
| 7 | 10 | PACKING WALTHAM | 5.1% | 19.72 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | BEAR AGAIN | 5.0% | 20.08 | 2 |
| 9 | 8 | ENRICHMENT | 4.1% | 24.44 | 9 |
| 10 | 6 | AMAZING ONE PLUS | 3.5% | 28.40 | 8 |
| 11 | 12 | KYRUS UNICORN | 3.0% | 32.99 | 7 |
| 12 | 5 | INSAYSHABLE | 2.7% | 36.82 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 35.5
PLACE
1 16
3 50
7 52.5
QUINELLA
1,7 315.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 117
1,7 126.5
3,7 533.5
FORECAST
1,7 455
TIERCE
1,7,3 6,932
TRIO
1,3,7 1,651
FIRST 4
1,3,5,7 2,699
QUARTET
1,7,3,5 33,038
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 25
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,7,9/1,3,7 268,599
8TH DOUBLE
7/1 187.5
7/7 176
SIX UP
1,5/3,12/6,12/1,6/2,7/1,7 10,277
1/12/12/6/7/1 1,757,682
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
6/7/1 504
6/7/7 351