Happy Valley · 2020-10-28
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-10-28 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WHAT A LEGEND, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K H Ting, won by 1, with LUCKY QUALITY second and CARRY THE DIAMOND third. The 3.5 favourite CARRY THE DIAMOND finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | WHAT A LEGEND B 1.09.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 1 | 4.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | LUCKY QUALITY J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 7 | 3.7 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | CARRY THE DIAMOND B/H/TT Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 5 | 3.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | SUN SUN FA FA TT B Shinn · W Y So | B Shinn | W Y So | 10 | 65.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | RUN THE TABLE H M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 3 | 16.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | DESTINE JEWELLERY V-/B2 K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 12 | 32.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | GINTOKI B A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 2 | 8.5 | 5 |
| 8 | 11 | SUPER EIGHTEEN B C Wong · A T Millard | C Wong | A T Millard | 9 | 14.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 7 | THE ELITES TT K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 4 | 199.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | BULLISH BROTHER B/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 8 | 10.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 6 | HOT CHILI PEPPER B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 6 | 63.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 9 | ROSSE SCARPE XB H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 11 | 229.0 | 11-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LUCKY QUALITY | 31.6% | 3.17 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | CARRY THE DIAMOND | 18.3% | 5.48 | 3 |
| 3 | 8 | GINTOKI | 12.1% | 8.26 | 7 |
| 4 | 11 | SUPER EIGHTEEN | 8.6% | 11.63 | 8 |
| 5 | 1 | BULLISH BROTHER | 7.9% | 12.64 | 10 |
| 6 | 2 | WHAT A LEGEND | 5.8% | 17.19 | 1 |
| 7 | 4 | SUN SUN FA FA | 5.4% | 18.48 | 4 |
| 8 | 10 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 5.4% | 18.63 | 6 |
| 9 | 12 | RUN THE TABLE | 2.0% | 50.23 | 5 |
| 10 | 7 | THE ELITES | 1.5% | 66.94 | 9 |
| 11 | 6 | HOT CHILI PEPPER | 1.0% | 102.25 | 11 |
| 12 | 9 | ROSSE SCARPE | 0.5% | 208.92 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 40.5
PLACE
2 16.5
3 16
5 14.5
QUINELLA
2,3 90.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 36.5
2,5 37
3,5 31.5
FORECAST
2,3 147
TIERCE
2,3,5 525
TRIO
2,3,5 88
FIRST 4
2,3,4,5 938
QUARTET
2,3,5,4 13,298
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
5/2 147.5
5/3 27
3 PICK 1
A1 19.5
A3 —
A2 —