Happy Valley · 2020-11-08
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SHINING ON, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by HD, with WOOD ON FIRE second and COURAGEOUS DRAGON third. The 2.1 favourite MY ECSTATIC finished 11th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SHINING ON 1.10.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 13.0 | HD |
| 2 | 9 | WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 12 | 26.0 | HD |
| 3 | 10 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON B/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 4 | 8.1 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | GOOD SHOT XB C Schofield · D J Hall | C Schofield | D J Hall | 1 | 15.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | HONEST WAY CP/TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 2 | 14.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | FANTASTIC FABIO M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 10 | 29.0 | 3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | ORIENTAL AMIGO H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 6 | 209.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | GALLANT CROWN B/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 11 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | LORIZ K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 3 | 4.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | DESTINE JEWELLERY B V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 7 | 45.0 | 3 |
| 11 | 6 | MY ECSTATIC TT1 Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 9 | 2.1 | 3-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | DAY DAY RICH B/TT H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 5 | 79.0 | 11-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | MY ECSTATIC | 24.4% | 4.10 | 11 |
| 2 | 10 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON | 17.6% | 5.69 | 3 |
| 3 | 1 | LORIZ | 13.0% | 7.70 | 9 |
| 4 | 8 | SHINING ON | 11.3% | 8.84 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | GOOD SHOT | 8.8% | 11.42 | 4 |
| 6 | 7 | GALLANT CROWN | 5.7% | 17.49 | 8 |
| 7 | 3 | HONEST WAY | 5.1% | 19.42 | 5 |
| 8 | 9 | WOOD ON FIRE | 3.9% | 25.61 | 2 |
| 9 | 11 | DESTINE JEWELLERY | 3.5% | 28.52 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 | FANTASTIC FABIO | 3.1% | 32.12 | 5 |
| 11 | 4 | DAY DAY RICH | 3.1% | 32.48 | 12 |
| 12 | 2 | ORIENTAL AMIGO | 0.5% | 198.75 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 132
PLACE
8 27
9 72
10 22.5
QUINELLA
8,9 1,389.5
QUINELLA PLACE
8,9 341
8,10 62
9,10 251
FORECAST
8,9 2,354
TIERCE
8,9,10 15,263
TRIO
8,9,10 1,938
FIRST 4
5,8,9,10 4,054
QUARTET
8,9,10,5 104,530
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
12/8 261
12/9 126
3 PICK 1
A2 27
A3 —
A1 —