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Happy Valley · 2020-11-08

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course A 11 runners

Result

Official · 0.57.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 WE THE SOUTH H/XB 0.57.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · F C Lor 1 3.9 1
2 0 HARMONY AND RICH Z Purton · W Y So 11 2.7 1
3 0 DIAMOND BRILLIANT B/TT A Hamelin · T P Yung 5 7.5 1-1/2
4 0 MAN STAR C Schofield · K H Ting 4 6.6 2-1/4
5 0 TELECOM PUMA SR-/H1/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 7 15.0 2-3/4
6 0 IMA SINGLE MAN B1/TT1 K H Chan · A S Cruz 9 13.0 3-1/2
7 0 MOMENT OF POWER B H N Wong · P O'Sullivan 12 57.0 4-3/4
8 0 MR LUMIERES CP1 C Y Ho · D J Hall 3 24.0 4-3/4
9 0 EXCEED THE STARS B H T Mo · C S Shum 6 11.0 6-1/2
10 0 PRINCE OF BON BON B N Callan · D E Ferraris 2 151.0 9-3/4
11 0 RUBY STARS H1/TT1 H W Lai · K L Man 8 50.0 13-3/4
— 0 FABULOUS EIGHT K Teetan · P F Yiu — — —
— 0 HEART CONQUERED A Badel · R Gibson — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-08 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. WE THE SOUTH, ridden by V Borges and trained by F C Lor, won by 1, with HARMONY AND RICH second and DIAMOND BRILLIANT third. The 2.7 favourite HARMONY AND RICH finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WE THE SOUTH—2. HARMONY AND RICH+1L3. DIAMOND BRILLIANT+1.5L4. MAN STAR+2.25L5. TELECOM PUMA+2.75L6. IMA SINGLE MAN+3.5L7. MOMENT OF POWER+4.75L8. MR LUMIERES+4.75L9. EXCEED THE STARS+6.5L10. PRINCE OF BON BON+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick HARMONY AND RICH (24.8%) finished 2nd — the winner WE THE SOUTH was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HARMONY AND RICH 24.8% 4.03 2
2 0 WE THE SOUTH 24.7% 4.04 1
3 0 DIAMOND BRILLIANT 16.3% 6.15 3
4 0 EXCEED THE STARS 9.3% 10.78 9
5 0 MAN STAR 7.6% 13.22 4
6 0 IMA SINGLE MAN 4.9% 20.46 6
7 0 TELECOM PUMA 4.9% 20.50 5
8 0 MR LUMIERES 3.0% 33.10 8
9 0 MOMENT OF POWER 2.2% 45.43 7
10 0 RUBY STARS 1.6% 61.89 11
11 0 PRINCE OF BON BON 0.8% 129.58 10
HARMONY AND RICHWE THE SOUTH — wonDIAMOND BRILLIANTEXCEED THE STARSMAN STARIMA SINGLE MANTELECOM PUMAMR LUMIERESMOMENT OF POWERRUBY STARSPRINCE OF BON BON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 39.5

PLACE

3 12

10 14.5

11 20

QUINELLA

3,10 58.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 25.5

3,11 38

10,11 37

FORECAST

10,3 149

TIERCE

10,3,11 445

TRIO

3,10,11 87

FIRST 4

3,4,10,11 107

QUARTET

10,3,11,4 1,889

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 16

A3 —

A2 —

7TH DOUBLE

3/3,8 26

3/10 286