Happy Valley · 2020-11-08
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FEARLESS FIRE Closed strongly XB2 1.41.38 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 11 | 23.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | VILLA FIONN Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 4 | 11.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly B A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 9 | 13.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | INCANTO PREPARED Closed strongly E/TT T Piccone · J Size | T Piccone | J Size | 8 | 6.4 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | ALL YOU KNOW CP/H/TT K Teetan · R Gibson | K Teetan | R Gibson | 5 | 7.8 | 1 |
| 6 | 0 | DAILY BEAUTY TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 1 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | KING DRAGON V/XB Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 7 | 2.5 | 3 |
| 8 | 0 | BIG BANG BONG TT V Borges · C W Chang | V Borges | C W Chang | 6 | 37.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 0 | UNIVERSAL GO GO B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 6.4 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | CHARITY WINGS B C Wong · C S Shum | C Wong | C S Shum | 10 | 36.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | KIRAM N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 3 | 36.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | ALLOY STAR Led early B H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 2 | 145.0 | 14-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-08 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FEARLESS FIRE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with VILLA FIONN second and GLORIOUS LOVER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite KING DRAGON finished 7th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | KING DRAGON | 23.6% | 4.24 | 7 |
| 2 | 0 | DAILY BEAUTY | 18.7% | 5.34 | 6 |
| 3 | 0 | INCANTO PREPARED | 12.9% | 7.75 | 4 |
| 4 | 0 | ALL YOU KNOW | 12.8% | 7.80 | 5 |
| 5 | 0 | UNIVERSAL GO GO | 9.3% | 10.74 | 9 |
| 6 | 0 | GLORIOUS LOVER | 6.0% | 16.71 | 3 |
| 7 | 0 | VILLA FIONN | 5.0% | 20.05 | 2 |
| 8 | 0 | FEARLESS FIRE | 3.4% | 29.48 | 1 |
| 9 | 0 | CHARITY WINGS | 3.2% | 31.17 | 10 |
| 10 | 0 | KIRAM | 2.5% | 40.47 | 11 |
| 11 | 0 | BIG BANG BONG | 1.4% | 71.84 | 8 |
| 12 | 0 | ALLOY STAR | 1.2% | 82.65 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 237
PLACE
1 45.5
2 24.5
10 54
QUINELLA
2,10 1,350
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 188
1,10 548
2,10 287
FORECAST
10,2 2,898
TIERCE
10,2,1 28,568
TRIO
1,2,10 6,282
FIRST 4
1,2,6,10 3,133
QUARTET
10,2,1,6 96,387
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 28
4TH DOUBLE
9/2 335.5
9/10 5,021