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Happy Valley · 2020-11-08

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-11-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY QUALITY, ridden by C Schofield and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/4, with WINS ALL second and GREAT SON third. The 3.2 favourite KINDA COOL finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.10.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 LUCKY QUALITY 1.10.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · C Fownes 10 6.8 1-1/4
2 8 WINS ALL TT K Teetan · W Y So 9 4.3 1-1/4
3 9 GREAT SON V/TT C Wong · P O'Sullivan 2 9.9 1-3/4
4 7 NOBLE MAN B/E/TT V Borges · J Size 4 45.0 1-3/4
5 2 SIMPLY FLUKE CP/H/XB A Badel · D J Whyte 8 5.8 2-1/4
6 1 KINDA COOL Z Purton · F C Lor 12 3.2 2-1/2
7 10 REGENCY POET B K C Leung · K L Man 5 8.9 2-3/4
8 5 CIGARY H W Lai · Y S Tsui 3 107.0 4-1/2
9 12 VEGA RHYTHM H H T Mo · L Ho 6 88.0 5
10 11 GORGEOUS INHERITOR B- H N Wong · C H Yip 1 64.0 6-1/2
11 3 FOCUS M F Poon · P F Yiu 7 22.0 7-1/4
12 6 VOYAGE STAR V/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 11 22.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY QUALITY2. WINS ALL+1.25L3. GREAT SON+1.75L4. NOBLE MAN+1.75L5. SIMPLY FLUKE+2.25L6. KINDA COOL+2.5L7. REGENCY POET+2.75L8. CIGARY+4.5L9. VEGA RHYTHM+5L10. GORGEOUS INHERITOR+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick KINDA COOL (25.7%) finished 6th — the winner LUCKY QUALITY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 KINDA COOL 25.7% 3.89 6
2 4 LUCKY QUALITY 16.5% 6.07 1
3 8 WINS ALL 12.7% 7.85 2
4 2 SIMPLY FLUKE 9.7% 10.33 5
5 3 FOCUS 8.5% 11.76 11
6 10 REGENCY POET 6.6% 15.08 7
7 9 GREAT SON 5.8% 17.33 3
8 6 VOYAGE STAR 5.1% 19.62 12
9 12 VEGA RHYTHM 2.8% 35.61 9
10 7 NOBLE MAN 2.6% 38.23 4
11 11 GORGEOUS INHERITOR 2.0% 49.26 10
12 5 CIGARY 1.9% 52.16 8
KINDA COOLLUCKY QUALITY — wonWINS ALLSIMPLY FLUKEFOCUSREGENCY POETGREAT SONVOYAGE STARVEGA RHYTHMNOBLE MANGORGEOUS INHERITORCIGARY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 68

PLACE

4 21

8 17

9 28

QUINELLA

4,8 159

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 59.5

4,9 89

8,9 73.5

FORECAST

4,8 328

TIERCE

4,8,9 2,500

TRIO

4,8,9 484

FIRST 4

4,7,8,9 2,969

QUARTET

4,8,9,7 49,746

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 22

5TH DOUBLE

10/4 1,804.5

10/8 353.5

TRIPLE TRIO

9>3,4,5,8,10/1,2,10/4,8,9 7,522,893

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

9>3,4,5,8,10/1,2,10/Any Combination 32,097