Sha Tin · 2020-12-20
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. DEMONS ROCK, ridden by H T Mo and trained by D J Hall, won by 1/2, with RESOLUTE second and JADE PHOENIX third. The 3.6 favourite JADE PHOENIX finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | DEMONS ROCK B 1.09.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 11 | 25.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | RESOLUTE B C Soumillon · A T Millard | C Soumillon | A T Millard | 9 | 4.3 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | JADE PHOENIX B J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 1 | 3.6 | 2 |
| 4 | 2 | URBAN DANCER XB1/TT B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 12 | 47.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | SUPER RED DRAGON B/TT A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 6 | 6.4 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 8 | STAR SUPERIOR K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 2 | 16.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 10 | HAPPY TANGO B Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 7 | 5.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | HEY PAL B/TT K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 3 | 6.5 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | LUCKY DIAMOND CP1 T Piccone · K H Ting | T Piccone | K H Ting | 10 | 122.0 | 8 |
| 10 | 4 | GOLDIE FLANKER B C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 5 | 31.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | WINNING VOLATILITY B V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 4 | 114.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 12 | 12 | FANTASTIC FABIO M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 8 | 34.0 | 14 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | JADE PHOENIX | 35.3% | 2.83 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | SUPER RED DRAGON | 22.3% | 4.49 | 5 |
| 3 | 10 | HAPPY TANGO | 9.2% | 10.84 | 7 |
| 4 | 5 | RESOLUTE | 7.3% | 13.62 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | HEY PAL | 6.9% | 14.60 | 8 |
| 6 | 8 | STAR SUPERIOR | 5.2% | 19.12 | 6 |
| 7 | 12 | FANTASTIC FABIO | 3.0% | 32.81 | 12 |
| 8 | 9 | DEMONS ROCK | 2.9% | 34.71 | 1 |
| 9 | 4 | GOLDIE FLANKER | 2.8% | 35.37 | 10 |
| 10 | 7 | WINNING VOLATILITY | 2.1% | 47.67 | 11 |
| 11 | 6 | LUCKY DIAMOND | 1.5% | 64.73 | 9 |
| 12 | 2 | URBAN DANCER | 1.4% | 72.80 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 254
PLACE
3 15.5
5 17
9 56
QUINELLA
5,9 424
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 37.5
3,9 158
5,9 159
FORECAST
9,5 1,309
TIERCE
9,5,3 7,841
TRIO
3,5,9 523
FIRST 4
2,3,5,9 6,015
QUARTET
9,5,3,2 178,503
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 34
A2 —
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE
11/5 88
11/9 2,033