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Sha Tin · 2020-12-20

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-20 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CELESTIAL POWER, ridden by M F Poon and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with KYRUS UNICORN second and ROMANTIC COMBO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite ROMANTIC COMBO finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.33.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 CELESTIAL POWER Closed strongly B-/V1 1.33.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · F C Lor 10 57.0 1-1/4
2 3 KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly SR Z Purton · C W Chang 2 7.5 1-1/4
3 10 ROMANTIC COMBO Closed strongly B-/CP1/TT A Badel · C S Shum 13 3.7 2-1/2
4 5 SACRED IBIS Closed strongly XB J Moreira · A T Millard 4 7.9 2-3/4
5 2 UNCLE STEVE Closed strongly SR/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 7 8.3 3-1/2
6 12 TELECOM FIGHTERS H W Lai · Y S Tsui 8 28.0 3-1/2
7 11 SUPER ELEGANCE Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · K H Ting 5 28.0 4-1/4
8 9 BEAUTY DAY Led early B/H V Borges · T P Yung 11 9.9 4-3/4
9 13 RED ELYSEES B H N Wong · K L Man 14 45.0 5
10 6 PRECISE EXPRESS Closed strongly M Chadwick · P F Yiu 12 29.0 5-1/4
11 4 PERFECT TO GREAT XB1/TT- C Soumillon · C Fownes 6 7.2 5-1/2
12 1 CALIFORNIA TEN CP1/TT1 T Piccone · A S Cruz 3 39.0 7-1/2
13 14 LUCKY MARYKNOLL CP1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 1 252.0 9
14 8 TEMPEST EXPRESS B/E/TT K Teetan · J Size 9 6.4 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CELESTIAL POWER—2. KYRUS UNICORN+1.25L3. ROMANTIC COMBO+2.5L4. SACRED IBIS+2.75L5. UNCLE STEVE+3.5L6. TELECOM FIGHTERS+3.5L7. SUPER ELEGANCE+4.25L8. BEAUTY DAY+4.75L9. RED ELYSEES+5L10. PRECISE EXPRESS+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick UNCLE STEVE (14.4%) finished 5th — the winner CELESTIAL POWER was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 UNCLE STEVE 14.4% 6.94 5
2 10 ROMANTIC COMBO 14.2% 7.04 3
3 5 SACRED IBIS 13.2% 7.57 4
4 8 TEMPEST EXPRESS 10.9% 9.14 14
5 11 SUPER ELEGANCE 7.2% 13.87 7
6 3 KYRUS UNICORN 6.7% 14.96 2
7 4 PERFECT TO GREAT 6.1% 16.38 11
8 1 CALIFORNIA TEN 5.8% 17.15 12
9 9 BEAUTY DAY 5.2% 19.33 8
10 7 CELESTIAL POWER 4.8% 20.64 1
11 13 RED ELYSEES 4.3% 23.00 9
12 6 PRECISE EXPRESS 4.2% 23.96 10
13 12 TELECOM FIGHTERS 2.1% 48.21 6
14 14 LUCKY MARYKNOLL 0.8% 125.38 13
UNCLE STEVEROMANTIC COMBOSACRED IBISTEMPEST EXPRESSSUPER ELEGANCEKYRUS UNICORNPERFECT TO GREATCALIFORNIA TENBEAUTY DAYCELESTIAL POWER — wonRED ELYSEESPRECISE EXPRESSTELECOM FIGHTERSLUCKY MARYKNOLL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 578

PLACE

3 23.5

7 142.5

10 17.5

QUINELLA

3,7 2,694

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 682.5

3,10 53

7,10 372.5

FORECAST

7,3 6,013

TIERCE

7,3,10 29,029

TRIO

3,7,10 2,377

FIRST 4

3,5,7,10 4,261

QUARTET

7,3,10,5 182,818

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 24.5

8TH DOUBLE

5/3 190

5/7 5,994

← Race 8 Race 10 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1600m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99