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Sha Tin · 2020-12-20

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-20 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. FORTUNE MASTER, ridden by J Moreira and trained by K W Lui, won by 2-1/4, with WINNING STEED second and SPEED FAY FAY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 FORTUNE MASTER Closed strongly 1.21.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · K W Lui 1 2.7 2-1/4
2 9 WINNING STEED Closed strongly CP1 Z Purton · K H Ting 2 6.1 2-1/4
3 2 SPEED FAY FAY Closed strongly B C Soumillon · T P Yung 11 6.5 3-1/2
4 12 SMART WONGCHOY Led early B-/H2 M L Yeung · D J Whyte 4 10.0 3-3/4
5 3 SO AWESOME Closed strongly B1 K Teetan · Y S Tsui 9 7.7 4
6 13 APOLAR WARRIOR Closed strongly B-/V1 C Wong · P F Yiu 8 165.0 4-1/2
7 8 COUNTRY BOY H/P/TT T Piccone · J Size 3 115.0 5-1/4
8 14 COPARTNER ERA B A Badel · W Y So 5 7.7 5-1/4
9 4 DREAM WARRIORS Closed strongly CP/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 14 25.0 5-1/2
10 1 SPRINT FORWARD CP/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes 12 20.0 6-1/4
11 5 SAVVY KINGMAN Closed strongly A Hamelin · F C Lor 7 156.0 6-1/2
12 7 BIG LUCK CHAMP B1 B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 10 26.0 11
13 10 LUCKY MISSILE Closed strongly B- M F Poon · D J Hall 13 72.0 11-1/2
14 6 SUNDAY BETTING B V Borges · C Fownes 6 67.0 24-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FORTUNE MASTER2. WINNING STEED+2.25L3. SPEED FAY FAY+3.5L4. SMART WONGCHOY+3.75L5. SO AWESOME+4L6. APOLAR WARRIOR+4.5L7. COUNTRY BOY+5.25L8. COPARTNER ERA+5.25L9. DREAM WARRIORS+5.5L10. SPRINT FORWARD+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick FORTUNE MASTER (24.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 FORTUNE MASTER 24.3% 4.11 1
2 9 WINNING STEED 15.8% 6.34 2
3 3 SO AWESOME 15.1% 6.63 5
4 2 SPEED FAY FAY 12.3% 8.14 3
5 14 COPARTNER ERA 8.6% 11.67 8
6 5 SAVVY KINGMAN 7.2% 13.95 11
7 1 SPRINT FORWARD 3.8% 26.53 10
8 4 DREAM WARRIORS 2.6% 38.23 9
9 12 SMART WONGCHOY 2.5% 39.57 4
10 10 LUCKY MISSILE 2.5% 40.02 13
11 7 BIG LUCK CHAMP 2.2% 45.11 12
12 13 APOLAR WARRIOR 1.4% 73.39 6
13 6 SUNDAY BETTING 1.2% 82.82 14
14 8 COUNTRY BOY 0.6% 167.48 7
FORTUNE MASTER — wonWINNING STEEDSO AWESOMESPEED FAY FAYCOPARTNER ERASAVVY KINGMANSPRINT FORWARDDREAM WARRIORSSMART WONGCHOYLUCKY MISSILEBIG LUCK CHAMPAPOLAR WARRIORSUNDAY BETTINGCOUNTRY BOY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 27

PLACE

2 21

9 19.5

11 13

QUINELLA

9,11 77

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 72.5

2,11 40

9,11 36

FORECAST

11,9 169

TIERCE

11,9,2 616

TRIO

2,9,11 141

FIRST 4

2,9,11,12 573

QUARTET

11,9,2,12 8,615

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 19

5TH DOUBLE

9/9 486

9/11 1,364

TRIPLE TRIO

3,10,11/3,5,9/2,9,11 2,217,105

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,10,11/3,5,9/Any Combination 44,342