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Sha Tin · 2020-12-20

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-12-20 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPER TEN, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by 2-1/2, with LEADING FORTUNE second and ULTRA EXPRESS third. The winner led throughout. The 2.0 favourite EVERYONE'S DELIGHT finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.22.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 SUPER TEN Wire to wire XB 1.22.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte 5 8.9 2-1/2
2 3 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly J Moreira · J Size 9 4.9 2-1/2
3 10 ULTRA EXPRESS Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A T Millard 12 47.0 2-3/4
4 7 MAXIMIZE HEART B M F Poon · C H Yip 1 86.0 3
5 8 KING DRAGON Closed strongly V/XB C Soumillon · K L Man 14 9.8 4-1/4
6 1 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT CP Z Purton · F C Lor 11 2.0 4-1/2
7 6 DANDY YEARS B1/TT1 A Badel · C S Shum 10 75.0 4-1/2
8 12 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly B A Hamelin · P F Yiu 2 10.0 5-1/4
9 4 SUPERB DADDY B2 T Piccone · D E Ferraris 8 14.0 5-3/4
10 2 GOLDEN FOUR K H Chan · C W Chang 7 20.0 6-3/4
11 9 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR CP1/H1/XB1 M L Yeung · D A Hayes 4 34.0 9-1/4
12 14 LUCKY TURBO B/TT V Borges · A S Cruz 6 70.0 11-3/4
13 5 A SHIN CHALLENGE B1 B Shinn · W Y So 13 203.0 16-1/4
14 13 EASY DAZZLING H/P/TT H N Wong · K W Lui 3 277.0 16-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER TEN2. LEADING FORTUNE+2.5L3. ULTRA EXPRESS+2.75L4. MAXIMIZE HEART+3L5. KING DRAGON+4.25L6. EVERYONE'S DELIGHT+4.5L7. DANDY YEARS+4.5L8. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+5.25L9. SUPERB DADDY+5.75L10. GOLDEN FOUR+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick EVERYONE'S DELIGHT (36.4%) finished 6th — the winner SUPER TEN was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 EVERYONE'S DELIGHT 36.4% 2.75 6
2 3 LEADING FORTUNE 13.9% 7.22 2
3 6 DANDY YEARS 9.3% 10.72 7
4 8 KING DRAGON 8.8% 11.35 5
5 11 SUPER TEN 7.3% 13.74 1
6 12 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 5.6% 17.76 8
7 4 SUPERB DADDY 4.7% 21.23 9
8 2 GOLDEN FOUR 4.3% 23.13 10
9 7 MAXIMIZE HEART 2.1% 48.25 4
10 14 LUCKY TURBO 1.9% 52.77 12
11 9 YEE CHEONG WARRIOR 1.8% 54.25 11
12 10 ULTRA EXPRESS 1.7% 58.28 3
13 5 A SHIN CHALLENGE 1.6% 60.97 13
14 13 EASY DAZZLING 0.5% 214.88 14
EVERYONE'S DELIGHTLEADING FORTUNEDANDY YEARSKING DRAGONSUPER TEN — wonWINWIN THIRTYTHREESUPERB DADDYGOLDEN FOURMAXIMIZE HEARTLUCKY TURBOYEE CHEONG WARRIORULTRA EXPRESSA SHIN CHALLENGEEASY DAZZLING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 89

PLACE

3 16

10 117

11 24.5

QUINELLA

3,11 275.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 330

3,11 71.5

10,11 431

FORECAST

11,3 484

TIERCE

11,3,10 13,962

TRIO

3,10,11 3,224

FIRST 4

3,7,10,11 25,360

QUARTET

11,3,10,7 379,614

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,10/3,10,11 748,839

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 32.5

3RD DOUBLE

3/3 274.5

3/11 1,994.5