沙田 · 2020-12-20
第 6場
2020-12-20沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、K W Lui訓練的FORTUNE MASTER勝出，贏出2-1/4。WINNING STEED獲得亞軍；SPEED FAY FAY獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | FORTUNE MASTER 後段發力 1.21.51 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 1 | 2.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 9 | WINNING STEED 後段發力 CP1 Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 2 | 6.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | SPEED FAY FAY 後段發力 B C Soumillon · T P Yung | C Soumillon | T P Yung | 11 | 6.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 12 | SMART WONGCHOY 早段領放 B-/H2 M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 4 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | SO AWESOME 後段發力 B1 K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 9 | 7.7 | 4 |
| 6 | 13 | APOLAR WARRIOR 後段發力 B-/V1 C Wong · P F Yiu | C Wong | P F Yiu | 8 | 165.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | COUNTRY BOY H/P/TT T Piccone · J Size | T Piccone | J Size | 3 | 115.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 14 | COPARTNER ERA B A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 5 | 7.7 | 5-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | DREAM WARRIORS 後段發力 CP/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 14 | 25.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | SPRINT FORWARD CP/TT C L Chau · D A Hayes | C L Chau | D A Hayes | 12 | 20.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | SAVVY KINGMAN 後段發力 A Hamelin · F C Lor | A Hamelin | F C Lor | 7 | 156.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 7 | BIG LUCK CHAMP B1 B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 26.0 | 11 |
| 13 | 10 | LUCKY MISSILE 後段發力 B- M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 13 | 72.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 14 | 6 | SUNDAY BETTING B V Borges · C Fownes | V Borges | C Fownes | 6 | 67.0 | 24-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | FORTUNE MASTER | 24.3% | 4.11 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | WINNING STEED | 15.8% | 6.34 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | SO AWESOME | 15.1% | 6.63 | 5 |
| 4 | 2 | SPEED FAY FAY | 12.3% | 8.14 | 3 |
| 5 | 14 | COPARTNER ERA | 8.6% | 11.67 | 8 |
| 6 | 5 | SAVVY KINGMAN | 7.2% | 13.95 | 11 |
| 7 | 1 | SPRINT FORWARD | 3.8% | 26.53 | 10 |
| 8 | 4 | DREAM WARRIORS | 2.6% | 38.23 | 9 |
| 9 | 12 | SMART WONGCHOY | 2.5% | 39.57 | 4 |
| 10 | 10 | LUCKY MISSILE | 2.5% | 40.02 | 13 |
| 11 | 7 | BIG LUCK CHAMP | 2.2% | 45.11 | 12 |
| 12 | 13 | APOLAR WARRIOR | 1.4% | 73.39 | 6 |
| 13 | 6 | SUNDAY BETTING | 1.2% | 82.82 | 14 |
| 14 | 8 | COUNTRY BOY | 0.6% | 167.48 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 27
PLACE
2 21
9 19.5
11 13
QUINELLA
9,11 77
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 72.5
2,11 40
9,11 36
FORECAST
11,9 169
TIERCE
11,9,2 616
TRIO
2,9,11 141
FIRST 4
2,9,11,12 573
QUARTET
11,9,2,12 8,615
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 19
5TH DOUBLE
9/9 486
9/11 1,364
TRIPLE TRIO
3,10,11/3,5,9/2,9,11 2,217,105
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,10,11/3,5,9/Any Combination 44,342