沙田 · 2020-12-20
第 10場
2020-12-20沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由K Teetan策騎、F C Lor訓練的HEALTHY HAPPY勝出，贏出SH。BAND OF BROTHERS獲得亞軍；BEAUTY SMILE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.4倍大熱門BAND OF BROTHERS跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | HEALTHY HAPPY 後段發力 V/TT1 1.21.66 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 6 | 5.6 | SH |
| 2 | 1 | BAND OF BROTHERS 後段發力 B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 7 | 4.4 | SH |
| 3 | 14 | BEAUTY SMILE 後段發力 B/TT V Borges · A S Cruz | V Borges | A S Cruz | 8 | 5.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | WINNING METHOD 後段發力 TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 13 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | BALLISTIC KING C Soumillon · K H Ting | C Soumillon | K H Ting | 9 | 6.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | BEAUTY LEGACY 後段發力 E-/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 5 | 8.2 | 3 |
| 7 | 13 | THINKIN' BIG 後段發力 B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 1 | 9.4 | 3 |
| 8 | 11 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE 後段發力 B/TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 14 | 18.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 4 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 4 | 19.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | ALPHA HEDGE CP M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 2 | 53.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 6 | UGLY WARRIOR 早段領放 H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 10 | 193.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | KING OPIE V K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 3 | 81.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 8 | BEAUTY RUSH E M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 12 | 50.0 | 7-1/4 |
| — | 10 | CONQUEROR B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BAND OF BROTHERS | 13.7% | 7.30 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | HEALTHY HAPPY | 13.4% | 7.49 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | BEAUTY LEGACY | 12.3% | 8.13 | 6 |
| 4 | 13 | THINKIN' BIG | 11.6% | 8.60 | 7 |
| 5 | 4 | GOOD LUCK FRIEND | 9.8% | 10.21 | 9 |
| 6 | 2 | BALLISTIC KING | 9.2% | 10.89 | 5 |
| 7 | 14 | BEAUTY SMILE | 8.0% | 12.57 | 3 |
| 8 | 8 | BEAUTY RUSH | 5.4% | 18.55 | 13 |
| 9 | 9 | WINNING METHOD | 5.1% | 19.64 | 4 |
| 10 | 11 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 4.5% | 22.11 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | ALPHA HEDGE | 2.9% | 35.07 | 10 |
| 12 | 12 | KING OPIE | 2.8% | 35.35 | 12 |
| 13 | 6 | UGLY WARRIOR | 1.4% | 72.42 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 56.5
PLACE
1 18
5 22
14 18
QUINELLA
1,5 150.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 56.5
1,14 46.5
5,14 63
FORECAST
5,1 376
TIERCE
5,1,14 1,506
TRIO
1,5,14 270
FIRST 4
1,5,9,14 990
QUARTET
5,1,14,9 21,979
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 20
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,7,10/1,5,10,14 201,957
9TH DOUBLE
7/1,10 570
7/5 4,463
SIX UP
5,9/9,11/4,6/1,5/3,7/1,5,10 126,642
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
5/7/1,10 5,898
5/7/5 33,231