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Happy Valley · 2021-01-06

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2021-01-06 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. MALDIVES, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by SH, with CHARIZARD second and V CHEVALIERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.40.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB 1.40.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 1 2.0 SH
2 3 CHARIZARD Closed strongly TT C Soumillon · D E Ferraris 4 12.0 SH
3 4 V CHEVALIERS Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · K L Man 6 7.7 3/4
4 12 SURE WIN WIN K C Leung · T P Yung 7 22.0 1-3/4
5 8 PERFECT TO PLAY Closed strongly XB C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 33.0 2-1/2
6 7 CHAIRMAN LO B/TT K Teetan · J Size 5 19.0 3-3/4
7 9 STARLIT KNIGHT Led early B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 11 44.0 4-3/4
8 2 HAPPY FORTUNE Closed strongly XB-/H/P/TT H T Mo · L Ho 3 154.0 5-1/4
9 10 HAPPY JAI JAI XB-/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 2 24.0 5-1/4
10 11 SUNNY SMILE Closed strongly B/TT H W Lai · D E Ferraris 12 321.0 11-1/4
11 1 REGENCY MASTER TT J Moreira · C S Shum 9 3.3 13-1/2
12 5 A SHIN CHALLENGE B C Wong · W Y So 8 276.0 30-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MALDIVES2. CHARIZARD+0.1L3. V CHEVALIERS+0.75L4. SURE WIN WIN+1.75L5. PERFECT TO PLAY+2.5L6. CHAIRMAN LO+3.75L7. STARLIT KNIGHT+4.75L8. HAPPY FORTUNE+5.25L9. HAPPY JAI JAI+5.25L10. SUNNY SMILE+11.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick MALDIVES (28.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 MALDIVES 28.3% 3.53 1
2 4 V CHEVALIERS 20.7% 4.84 3
3 1 REGENCY MASTER 18.3% 5.45 11
4 8 PERFECT TO PLAY 7.4% 13.56 5
5 3 CHARIZARD 6.1% 16.31 2
6 7 CHAIRMAN LO 5.5% 18.26 6
7 9 STARLIT KNIGHT 5.0% 19.89 7
8 10 HAPPY JAI JAI 3.5% 28.19 9
9 12 SURE WIN WIN 3.1% 32.66 4
10 2 HAPPY FORTUNE 1.2% 80.88 8
11 11 SUNNY SMILE 0.5% 218.07 10
12 5 A SHIN CHALLENGE 0.4% 253.66 12
MALDIVES — wonV CHEVALIERSREGENCY MASTERPERFECT TO PLAYCHARIZARDCHAIRMAN LOSTARLIT KNIGHTHAPPY JAI JAISURE WIN WINHAPPY FORTUNESUNNY SMILEA SHIN CHALLENGE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 20

PLACE

3 26.5

4 18

6 11.5

QUINELLA

3,6 99

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 91

3,6 39.5

4,6 31

FORECAST

6,3 174

TIERCE

6,3,4 637

TRIO

3,4,6 214

FIRST 4

3,4,6,12 716

QUARTET

6,3,4,12 6,765

All pools (5 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

7,10,12/3,4,6 3,702

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 12.5

A3

6TH DOUBLE

10/3 61

10/6 58

TRIPLE TRIO

3,8,9/7,10,12/3,4,6 657,070

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,8,9/7,10,12/Any Combination 3,971