Happy Valley · 2021-01-06
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-01-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. COLONEL, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with MY ECSTATIC second and COURAGEOUS DRAGON third. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | COLONEL V 1.10.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P F Yiu | Z Purton | P F Yiu | 5 | 1.9 | N |
| 2 | 7 | MY ECSTATIC TT J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 7 | 7.3 | N |
| 3 | 10 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON B/TT T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 6 | 13.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | STREET SCREAM M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 11 | 43.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | NOBLE MAN B/E/TT M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 1 | 17.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | VUKAN K Teetan · P O'Sullivan | K Teetan | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | HERCULES B/XB/TT C L Chau · C H Yip | C L Chau | C H Yip | 10 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | AFTER ME B2 H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 9 | 77.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 6 | WOOD ON FIRE H/V/TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 12 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | FLYING PHOTOS H A Badel · Y S Tsui | A Badel | Y S Tsui | 2 | 9.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | MOMENTUM HAPPY B-/CP2 H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 8 | 22.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | RUNNING GUY H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 3 | 218.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | COLONEL | 19.5% | 5.14 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | MY ECSTATIC | 14.6% | 6.84 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | WOOD ON FIRE | 10.7% | 9.34 | 9 |
| 4 | 1 | HERCULES | 10.1% | 9.86 | 7 |
| 5 | 12 | NOBLE MAN | 8.6% | 11.66 | 5 |
| 6 | 4 | STREET SCREAM | 8.5% | 11.80 | 4 |
| 7 | 11 | FLYING PHOTOS | 8.3% | 12.12 | 10 |
| 8 | 10 | COURAGEOUS DRAGON | 8.2% | 12.20 | 3 |
| 9 | 5 | VUKAN | 7.1% | 14.17 | 6 |
| 10 | 2 | MOMENTUM HAPPY | 2.2% | 45.79 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | AFTER ME | 1.7% | 57.42 | 8 |
| 12 | 8 | RUNNING GUY | 0.6% | 173.39 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 19.5
PLACE
3 12
7 23
10 27.5
QUINELLA
3,7 82
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 33.5
3,10 62.5
7,10 126
FORECAST
3,7 143
TIERCE
3,7,10 839
TRIO
3,7,10 246
FIRST 4
3,4,7,10 2,359
QUARTET
3,7,10,4 20,406
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
4/3 301.5
4/7 89
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 17