Happy Valley · 2021-01-06
Race 8
Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-01-06 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. KA YING MASTER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by 1/2, with ALCARI second and HALL OF CHAMP third. The 4.0 favourite SHOUSON finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | KA YING MASTER TT 1.09.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 7 | 6.3 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | ALCARI B-/V1 K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 9 | 29.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 10 | HALL OF CHAMP B1 A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 6 | 8.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | SEVEN HEAVENS V N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 2 | 5.2 | 1 |
| 5 | 7 | SHOUSON B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 1 | 4.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | IMA SINGLE MAN CP/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 5 | 7.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | HARDLY SWEARS H C Soumillon · K H Ting | C Soumillon | K H Ting | 10 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | FIRST RESPONDER V A Hamelin · D J Whyte | A Hamelin | D J Whyte | 3 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 12 | WINSTON'S LAD B C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 58.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | COMPASSION SPIRIT CP1 M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 4 | 20.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 3 | BEAUTY SPARK B/TT C L Chau · F C Lor | C L Chau | F C Lor | 8 | 12.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | SUPER COMMANDER V Borges · D E Ferraris | V Borges | D E Ferraris | 11 | 205.0 | 6-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SHOUSON | 17.6% | 5.69 | 5 |
| 2 | 10 | HALL OF CHAMP | 10.8% | 9.25 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | KA YING MASTER | 10.4% | 9.63 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | COMPASSION SPIRIT | 10.3% | 9.74 | 10 |
| 5 | 9 | FIRST RESPONDER | 10.0% | 9.98 | 8 |
| 6 | 6 | HARDLY SWEARS | 9.7% | 10.28 | 7 |
| 7 | 11 | SEVEN HEAVENS | 9.5% | 10.49 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | BEAUTY SPARK | 8.9% | 11.26 | 11 |
| 9 | 1 | IMA SINGLE MAN | 5.2% | 19.40 | 6 |
| 10 | 12 | WINSTON'S LAD | 3.6% | 28.05 | 9 |
| 11 | 4 | ALCARI | 3.2% | 31.22 | 2 |
| 12 | 8 | SUPER COMMANDER | 0.9% | 114.10 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 63
PLACE
2 23.5
4 73.5
10 26
QUINELLA
2,4 1,125.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 339
2,10 88.5
4,10 378
FORECAST
2,4 1,438
TIERCE
2,4,10 10,010
TRIO
2,4,10 2,724
FIRST 4
2,4,10,11 2,627
QUARTET
2,4,10,11 67,376
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 26.5
A1 —
A3 —
7TH DOUBLE
6/2 87
6/4 120