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Happy Valley · 2021-01-13

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 2200m Course B 11 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-01-13 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. VICTORIOUS SEEKER, ridden by C Schofield and trained by P O'Sullivan, won by N, with EXALTATION second and DYNAMIC EAGLE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite EXALTATION finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.16.53
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 VICTORIOUS SEEKER Closed strongly B 2.16.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · P O'Sullivan 10 21.0 N
2 11 EXALTATION Closed strongly V/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 6 3.0 N
3 4 DYNAMIC EAGLE Closed strongly A Badel · C S Shum 3 4.5 2-1/4
4 6 MAGNETISM Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D E Ferraris 4 14.0 2-1/2
5 10 PERFECT TO PLAY XB T Piccone · C Fownes 2 8.3 3-1/4
6 7 BULLISH GLORY Closed strongly H M L Yeung · C W Chang 9 47.0 4-1/2
7 2 PEACH BLOSSOMS B/TT H W Lai · D J Hall 11 83.0 5
8 8 GREAT TIMES B C L Chau · K L Man 1 53.0 5-1/4
9 5 OWNERS' STAR B/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum 5 8.5 7
10 3 FULL POWER Led early B/XB N Callan · R Gibson 8 14.0 19
11 1 MORE THAN A HORSE V Z Purton · D J Whyte 7 5.5 34-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VICTORIOUS SEEKER2. EXALTATION+0.05L3. DYNAMIC EAGLE+2.25L4. MAGNETISM+2.5L5. PERFECT TO PLAY+3.25L6. BULLISH GLORY+4.5L7. PEACH BLOSSOMS+5L8. GREAT TIMES+5.25L9. OWNERS' STAR+7L10. FULL POWER+19L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick EXALTATION (27.6%) finished 2nd — the winner VICTORIOUS SEEKER was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 EXALTATION 27.6% 3.62 2
2 4 DYNAMIC EAGLE 22.3% 4.48 3
3 10 PERFECT TO PLAY 11.0% 9.13 5
4 5 OWNERS' STAR 10.1% 9.94 9
5 3 FULL POWER 6.4% 15.60 10
6 1 MORE THAN A HORSE 6.3% 15.94 11
7 9 VICTORIOUS SEEKER 5.3% 18.72 1
8 6 MAGNETISM 4.2% 23.61 4
9 8 GREAT TIMES 3.8% 26.01 8
10 2 PEACH BLOSSOMS 1.6% 64.19 7
11 7 BULLISH GLORY 1.4% 72.23 6
EXALTATIONDYNAMIC EAGLEPERFECT TO PLAYOWNERS' STARFULL POWERMORE THAN A HORSEVICTORIOUS SEEKER — wonMAGNETISMGREAT TIMESPEACH BLOSSOMSBULLISH GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 216.5

PLACE

4 16

9 55

11 14.5

QUINELLA

9,11 233

QUINELLA PLACE

4,9 139.5

4,11 30.5

9,11 92.5

FORECAST

9,11 781

TIERCE

9,11,4 3,334

TRIO

4,9,11 394

FIRST 4

4,6,9,11 771

QUARTET

9,11,4,6 26,844

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 35