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Happy Valley · 2021-01-13

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2021-01-13 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY ALUMNI, ridden by V Borges and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/4, with SCORES OF FUN second and CAPITAL STAR third. The 3.3 favourite THE RUNNER finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 HAPPY ALUMNI H/XB/TT 1.09.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · D A Hayes 2 11.0 1-1/4
2 2 SCORES OF FUN TT A Badel · J Size 4 4.6 1-1/4
2 5 CAPITAL STAR J Moreira · C Fownes 1 6.4 1-1/4
4 3 HINCHINLOVE B/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 10 109.0 1-1/2
5 9 THE RUNNER SR-/CP1 K Teetan · F C Lor 3 3.3 1-1/2
6 12 BRIGHT KID B/XB C Wong · W Y So 12 127.0 2-1/4
7 7 FLYING BONUS K H Chan · C H Yip 5 9.6 2-1/4
8 6 GOOD BEAUTY B/TT N Callan · K L Man 7 14.0 2-1/4
9 1 MIG ENERGY XB/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 9 8.3 2-1/2
10 4 SUNSHINE SUPREME H- C Schofield · R Gibson 8 49.0 3-1/4
11 11 MOMENTUM GALAXY B A Hamelin · K H Ting 6 21.0 4
12 8 SHOUSON B K C Leung · A T Millard 11 13.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAPPY ALUMNI2. SCORES OF FUN+1.25L2. CAPITAL STAR+1.25L4. HINCHINLOVE+1.5L5. THE RUNNER+1.5L6. BRIGHT KID+2.25L7. FLYING BONUS+2.25L8. GOOD BEAUTY+2.25L9. MIG ENERGY+2.5L10. SUNSHINE SUPREME+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SCORES OF FUN (17.5%) finished 2nd — the winner HAPPY ALUMNI was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SCORES OF FUN 17.5% 5.70 2
2 9 THE RUNNER 15.3% 6.53 5
3 1 MIG ENERGY 12.0% 8.36 9
4 7 FLYING BONUS 11.2% 8.94 7
5 8 SHOUSON 10.7% 9.39 12
6 5 CAPITAL STAR 8.5% 11.72 2
7 11 MOMENTUM GALAXY 7.8% 12.76 11
8 10 HAPPY ALUMNI 7.8% 12.79 1
9 6 GOOD BEAUTY 4.0% 25.18 8
10 4 SUNSHINE SUPREME 2.5% 40.78 10
11 12 BRIGHT KID 1.5% 65.26 6
12 3 HINCHINLOVE 1.2% 82.91 4
SCORES OF FUNTHE RUNNERMIG ENERGYFLYING BONUSSHOUSONCAPITAL STARMOMENTUM GALAXYHAPPY ALUMNI — wonGOOD BEAUTYSUNSHINE SUPREMEBRIGHT KIDHINCHINLOVE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 114.5

PLACE

2 16.5

5 28

10 37.5

QUINELLA

2,10 141

5,10 190

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 57.5

2,10 104

5,10 147.5

FORECAST

10,2 428

10,5 748

TIERCE

10,2,5 2,860

10,5,2 2,774

TRIO

2,5,10 485

FIRST 4

2,3,5,10 14,660

QUARTET

10,2,5,3 160,586

10,5,2,3 150,022

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 27.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,10/2,5,10 103,870

8TH DOUBLE

10/2 15

10/5 15.5

10/10 488.5

SIX UP

3,7/3,11/4,5/1,11/1,10/2,5,10 17,233

7/3/5/1/10/10 951,717

1 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

1/10/2 143

1/10/5 181

1/10/10 4,702