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Happy Valley · 2021-01-13

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-01-13 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. UNIVERSAL GO GO, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with DAILY BEAUTY second and GLUCK RACER third. The 2.4 favourite DAILY BEAUTY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.66
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 UNIVERSAL GO GO B/TT 1.10.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K W Lui 4 4.9 3/4
2 10 DAILY BEAUTY TT J Moreira · C Fownes 5 2.4 3/4
3 3 GLUCK RACER A Badel · K L Man 3 11.0 1-1/4
4 8 PEAK TO PEAK SR1 K Teetan · F C Lor 8 9.1 1-1/2
5 2 HELAKU KNIGHT H B Shinn · D A Hayes 11 25.0 2-1/2
6 11 STAR SUPERIOR H N Wong · C W Chang 2 26.0 3
7 7 FOCUS K C Leung · P F Yiu 12 55.0 3-1/2
8 6 MUDITA N Callan · P O'Sullivan 9 107.0 6
9 1 BULLISH BROTHER B/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 1 10.0 7-1/4
10 9 SKY CHAMPION B-/H1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 7 59.0 7-1/2
11 5 HAPPY PROFIT TT Z Purton · C S Shum 10 5.8 10-1/4
12 4 GOOD BUDDY H1 H W Lai · D J Hall 6 215.0 32-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. UNIVERSAL GO GO2. DAILY BEAUTY+0.75L3. GLUCK RACER+1.25L4. PEAK TO PEAK+1.5L5. HELAKU KNIGHT+2.5L6. STAR SUPERIOR+3L7. FOCUS+3.5L8. MUDITA+6L9. BULLISH BROTHER+7.25L10. SKY CHAMPION+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick DAILY BEAUTY (32.9%) finished 2nd — the winner UNIVERSAL GO GO was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 DAILY BEAUTY 32.9% 3.04 2
2 8 PEAK TO PEAK 13.6% 7.34 4
3 5 HAPPY PROFIT 12.6% 7.96 11
4 12 UNIVERSAL GO GO 11.0% 9.11 1
5 2 HELAKU KNIGHT 6.1% 16.45 5
6 3 GLUCK RACER 4.9% 20.54 3
7 6 MUDITA 4.6% 21.53 8
8 1 BULLISH BROTHER 4.6% 21.82 9
9 11 STAR SUPERIOR 3.9% 25.97 6
10 9 SKY CHAMPION 3.4% 29.03 10
11 7 FOCUS 2.1% 48.46 7
12 4 GOOD BUDDY 0.4% 236.86 12
DAILY BEAUTYPEAK TO PEAKHAPPY PROFITUNIVERSAL GO GO — wonHELAKU KNIGHTGLUCK RACERMUDITABULLISH BROTHERSTAR SUPERIORSKY CHAMPIONFOCUSGOOD BUDDY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 49

PLACE

3 36

10 12

12 16.5

QUINELLA

10,12 55.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 51.5

3,12 75

10,12 22.5

FORECAST

12,10 165

TIERCE

12,10,3 898

TRIO

3,10,12 157

FIRST 4

3,8,10,12 185

QUARTET

12,10,3,8 4,959

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

9/10 106.5

9/12 1,215

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 21.5

A1