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Happy Valley · 2021-01-13

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2021-01-13 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SMILING CITY, ridden by J Moreira and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with DELIGHTFUL LAOS second and NOBLE STEED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.40.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 SMILING CITY Closed strongly SR-/CP2 1.40.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · D J Whyte 11 3.2 N
2 1 DELIGHTFUL LAOS Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 5 5.4 N
3 3 NOBLE STEED Closed strongly B N Callan · K W Lui 12 29.0 3/4
4 7 INCANTO PREPARED Closed strongly E/TT A Badel · J Size 6 3.9 2-1/4
5 2 NAMJONG PLUS Closed strongly K Teetan · Y S Tsui 2 9.9 2-1/2
6 5 SURREALISM Closed strongly B A Hamelin · D E Ferraris 10 29.0 5-3/4
7 4 PRECISE EXPRESS K C Leung · P F Yiu 4 14.0 5-3/4
8 11 BLAZING BEAT Closed strongly CP M L Yeung · K H Ting 9 38.0 5-3/4
9 12 HANG'S DECISION B V Borges · W Y So 3 80.0 12
10 8 CABLE SPEED T Piccone · R Gibson 7 251.0 14-1/4
11 9 LEGION OF MERIT B M F Poon · D J Hall 1 112.0 19-3/4
12 6 ANGEL OF MY EYES Led early TT Z Purton · C S Shum 8 5.8 23-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SMILING CITY2. DELIGHTFUL LAOS+0.05L3. NOBLE STEED+0.75L4. INCANTO PREPARED+2.25L5. NAMJONG PLUS+2.5L6. SURREALISM+5.75L7. PRECISE EXPRESS+5.75L8. BLAZING BEAT+5.75L9. HANG'S DECISION+12L10. CABLE SPEED+14.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick INCANTO PREPARED (26.4%) finished 4th — the winner SMILING CITY was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 INCANTO PREPARED 26.4% 3.79 4
2 6 ANGEL OF MY EYES 16.5% 6.07 12
3 1 DELIGHTFUL LAOS 15.6% 6.42 2
4 2 NAMJONG PLUS 13.8% 7.24 5
5 10 SMILING CITY 11.7% 8.51 1
6 4 PRECISE EXPRESS 4.2% 23.73 7
7 3 NOBLE STEED 3.5% 28.59 3
8 5 SURREALISM 3.4% 29.43 6
9 11 BLAZING BEAT 2.0% 50.10 8
10 12 HANG'S DECISION 1.4% 72.46 9
11 9 LEGION OF MERIT 1.0% 96.41 11
12 8 CABLE SPEED 0.5% 214.73 10
INCANTO PREPAREDANGEL OF MY EYESDELIGHTFUL LAOSNAMJONG PLUSSMILING CITY — wonPRECISE EXPRESSNOBLE STEEDSURREALISMBLAZING BEATHANG'S DECISIONLEGION OF MERITCABLE SPEED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 32

PLACE

1 16

3 64

10 14.5

QUINELLA

1,10 103

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 199.5

1,10 39

3,10 114.5

FORECAST

10,1 191

TIERCE

10,1,3 2,510

TRIO

1,3,10 827

FIRST 4

1,3,7,10 435

QUARTET

10,1,3,7 8,989

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 15

7TH DOUBLE

1/1 80

1/10 358.5