Happy Valley · 2021-02-03
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-03 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SHINING ON, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by N, with HAPPY PROFIT second and CHEERFUL LEADER third. The 3.6 favourite HAPPY TIME finished 10th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SHINING ON 1.10.19 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 9 | 5.9 | N |
| 2 | 8 | HAPPY PROFIT TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 2 | 6.0 | N |
| 3 | 1 | CHEERFUL LEADER CP-/XB/B2 V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 11 | 24.0 | N |
| 4 | 2 | CANTSTOPTHEFEELING B/TT N Callan · K L Man | N Callan | K L Man | 7 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | MISSION SMART CP/H M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 12 | 17.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | SMART HUNTER B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 6 | 50.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 9 | MISTER ARM K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 5 | 18.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 4 | E HONEY K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 3 | 60.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | GOKO B/XB/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 4 | 17.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | HAPPY TIME TT B Shinn · W Y So | B Shinn | W Y So | 1 | 3.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 10 | 3.8 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | MULTIMORE B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 8 | 92.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS | 26.4% | 3.79 | 11 |
| 2 | 5 | SHINING ON | 17.7% | 5.64 | 1 |
| 3 | 6 | GOKO | 12.1% | 8.25 | 9 |
| 4 | 12 | MISSION SMART | 10.2% | 9.79 | 5 |
| 5 | 7 | HAPPY TIME | 8.6% | 11.66 | 10 |
| 6 | 8 | HAPPY PROFIT | 5.8% | 17.31 | 2 |
| 7 | 1 | CHEERFUL LEADER | 5.2% | 19.35 | 3 |
| 8 | 9 | MISTER ARM | 4.8% | 20.95 | 7 |
| 9 | 4 | E HONEY | 3.1% | 32.56 | 8 |
| 10 | 2 | CANTSTOPTHEFEELING | 2.4% | 41.52 | 4 |
| 11 | 10 | MULTIMORE | 2.3% | 43.25 | 12 |
| 12 | 11 | SMART HUNTER | 1.4% | 69.89 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 59
PLACE
1 74
5 15.5
8 22.5
QUINELLA
5,8 199.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 165.5
1,8 242.5
5,8 62.5
FORECAST
5,8 318
TIERCE
5,8,1 5,151
TRIO
1,5,8 894
FIRST 4
1,2,5,8 1,985
QUARTET
5,8,1,2 34,147
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 22.5
A2 —
A3 —