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Happy Valley · 2021-02-03

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 2200m Course A 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-03 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. DYNAMIC EAGLE, ridden by A Badel and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/2, with EXALTATION second and CROWN AVENUE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite EXALTATION finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.17.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 DYNAMIC EAGLE Closed strongly 2.17.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · C S Shum 7 7.8 1-1/2
2 7 EXALTATION Closed strongly V/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 6 2.9 1-1/2
3 3 CROWN AVENUE V Z Purton · C H Yip 3 6.8 2-1/2
4 5 MAGNETISM Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · D E Ferraris 5 17.0 2-3/4
5 9 GOOD DAYS Closed strongly B-/TT- V Borges · C S Shum 11 8.0 3
6 6 BULLISH GLORY Closed strongly H C Y Ho · C W Chang 2 17.0 3-1/4
7 10 PRETTY BAUHINIA Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui 10 9.2 3-3/4
8 4 VICTORIOUS SEEKER Closed strongly B C Schofield · P O'Sullivan 8 13.0 3-3/4
9 12 SKY GEM Closed strongly M L Yeung · C Fownes 12 13.0 4-1/4
10 1 PEACH BLOSSOMS Led early B/TT K C Leung · D J Hall 1 15.0 5
11 11 HAY RUN XB/V1 H T Mo · L Ho 4 40.0 5
12 8 GREAT TIMES B C L Chau · K L Man 9 78.0 22-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DYNAMIC EAGLE2. EXALTATION+1.5L3. CROWN AVENUE+2.5L4. MAGNETISM+2.75L5. GOOD DAYS+3L6. BULLISH GLORY+3.25L7. PRETTY BAUHINIA+3.75L8. VICTORIOUS SEEKER+3.75L9. SKY GEM+4.25L10. PEACH BLOSSOMS+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick EXALTATION (35.1%) finished 2nd — the winner DYNAMIC EAGLE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 EXALTATION 35.1% 2.85 2
2 2 DYNAMIC EAGLE 16.3% 6.12 1
3 3 CROWN AVENUE 11.3% 8.83 3
4 12 SKY GEM 6.2% 16.05 9
5 11 HAY RUN 5.8% 17.21 11
6 5 MAGNETISM 5.3% 18.94 4
7 10 PRETTY BAUHINIA 5.3% 19.03 7
8 4 VICTORIOUS SEEKER 4.4% 22.94 8
9 9 GOOD DAYS 4.1% 24.43 5
10 1 PEACH BLOSSOMS 2.2% 44.47 10
11 8 GREAT TIMES 2.1% 46.96 12
12 6 BULLISH GLORY 1.8% 56.06 6
EXALTATIONDYNAMIC EAGLE — wonCROWN AVENUESKY GEMHAY RUNMAGNETISMPRETTY BAUHINIAVICTORIOUS SEEKERGOOD DAYSPEACH BLOSSOMSGREAT TIMESBULLISH GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 78.5

PLACE

2 23.5

3 21

7 14

QUINELLA

2,7 119.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 65

2,7 44

3,7 49.5

FORECAST

2,7 285

TIERCE

2,7,3 1,302

TRIO

2,3,7 191

FIRST 4

2,3,5,7 537

QUARTET

2,7,3,5 11,587

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/2 226.5

2/7 16.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 21.5