Happy Valley · 2021-02-03
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2021-02-03 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CLASSIC POSH, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by 1, with MUDITA second and SEA ELITE third. The 2.6 favourite FORTUNE HERO finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CLASSIC POSH 1.10.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 5 | 4.0 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | MUDITA N Callan · P O'Sullivan | N Callan | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 150.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | SEA ELITE H C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 6 | 26.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | BRIGHT KID B/XB C Wong · W Y So | C Wong | W Y So | 9 | 7.9 | 1 |
| 5 | 12 | FORTUNE HERO B/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 4 | 2.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | RUN THE TABLE H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 5.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | AEROSONIC P/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 16.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 8 | TOP MILITARY B K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 11 | 25.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 10 | SCENIC SWEETIE TT H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 2 | 36.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 4 | HAPPY GATHERING A Hamelin · K L Man | A Hamelin | K L Man | 12 | 58.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL CP-/B1/TT1 B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 7 | 20.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 9 | DRAGON IN FIELD T Piccone · C W Chang | T Piccone | C W Chang | 1 | 26.0 | 7-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | FORTUNE HERO | 28.4% | 3.52 | 5 |
| 2 | 2 | CLASSIC POSH | 24.8% | 4.03 | 1 |
| 3 | 11 | RUN THE TABLE | 17.9% | 5.58 | 6 |
| 4 | 3 | AEROSONIC | 9.4% | 10.66 | 7 |
| 5 | 1 | BRIGHT KID | 6.0% | 16.62 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | TOP MILITARY | 3.9% | 25.53 | 8 |
| 7 | 4 | HAPPY GATHERING | 2.8% | 35.77 | 10 |
| 8 | 6 | MUDITA | 1.8% | 56.66 | 2 |
| 9 | 9 | DRAGON IN FIELD | 1.5% | 65.18 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | SCENIC SWEETIE | 1.4% | 71.70 | 9 |
| 11 | 7 | SEA ELITE | 1.1% | 94.75 | 3 |
| 12 | 5 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL | 1.0% | 103.49 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 40.5
PLACE
2 17
6 241.5
7 57
QUINELLA
2,6 1,930
QUINELLA PLACE
2,6 534
2,7 152.5
6,7 2,535.5
FORECAST
2,6 2,429
TIERCE
2,6,7 33,665
TRIO
2,6,7 11,085
FIRST 4
1,2,6,7 10,984
QUARTET
2,6,7,1 222,735
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
5/2 172.5
5/6 1,237
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 16